Analysis of California Field Poll Showing Clinton-Obama Too Close to Call in Nation’s Biggest State

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll released today shows the Democratic race within the margin of error of the poll with Hillary Clinton at 36% of likely voters and Barack Obama at 34% with 18% undecided and another 12% voting for other candidates. It documents what Field calls a “strong surge” for Obama since its last poll taken in mid January, just 9 to 12 days earlier. It has a margin of error of 4.5% and was taken between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1.

While many will have their hunches reading the tea leaves here as to who will win the California primary, this one is simply too close to call, and the race will be determined by those who actually turn out and vote. It is not just the margin of error of the poll here of static statistics, but a volatile and unpredictable electorate and the closeness of division in those who have already made up their minds. For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton—hardly decisive at all.

The entire Field poll is now available online , runs to 9 pages, and is fascinating to review. It shows John McCain widening his lead over Mitt Romney to 8 points, 32% to 24%.

Field has been polling in California since 1947 and is widely respected, dubbed the “gold standard” by many political observers. They describe their findings as “Obama’s support has been increasing steadily, while support for Clinton has been relatively stagnant.” If anything, it appears that Clinton’s support actually dropped from 39% in the prior survey to the current 36%, but this is within the margin of error of the poll.

Field also had this longer than usual cautionary note at the end of the poll that sums up the uncertainty in the California race in the final days:

“[T]here are also unusually large proportions of voters – 18% in the Democratic primary and 15% in the Republican – who were undecided in the final days of the campaign. These voters had indicated in prior questions that they were highly likely to vote. Considering the many months of campaigning, extensive free media coverage, advertising, and recent televised debates, these voters have been exposed to considerable information about the candidates and appear to be in some real conflict as to whom to support. How these voters come to judgment will have a big bearing on the election outcome of both sides.

“There is another aspect to the Democratic primary findings that is unique and where there is not much precedence in previous presidential elections. It is the group of non-partisans who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. These voters have candidate preferences that counter those of registered Democrats. The relative size of each eventual voting bloc, therefore, will have a major impact on the outcome.”

Translation: This one is up for grabs. You have to get to the mid 40’s to win this one.