Analysis of New California Poll That Shows Clinton and Giuliani Still Leading in State's Presidential Primary--What Do the Numbe

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Bush and Iraq Remain Toxic in California

By Frank D. Russo

The Survey and Policy Research Institute of San Jose State University, a respected and nonpartisan pollster, has just released a poll showing Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead (37%) over John Edwards and Barack Obama who both have 15% of the vote for the Democratic nomination for President in the February 5, 2008 election. On the Republican side, Rudolph Giuliani leads with 25% of the vote, with Fred Thompson, the new (and still technically "exploring" candidate) at 16%, edging out John McCain at 14% and within the margin of error of the poll. Mitt Romney trails badly at 5%.

Even though it is still early (the primary, even with it being advanced, is still 8 months away) and we haven't had a single vote in the states still ahead of us, the numbers tell an interesting story. Remembering that at this time in 2003, Kerry who decisively won the Democratic nomination for President, was languishing and all but given up for dead, here's what the numbers mean.

The Democratic Presidential Race in California

There's a huge gender gap here--18%. Clinton gets 45% of the women's vote and only 27% of the men's vote in this survey. If the election were held today, she would crush Obama at 13% and Edwards at 8% in the women's vote. This leads Phil Trounstine, the Director of the SPRI which conducted the poll to conclude: “Clinton is being swept along by her support among women. If Edwards, Obama or any other candidate can peel women away from Clinton, the Democrats could have a competitive race in California. But if Clinton keeps her grasp on women, it’s not going to be much of a contest here.”

Clinton has a narrow lead of 27% to Edwards' 24% and Obama's 14% in the men's vote.

Overall, 10% in the Democratic primary are supporting "other" candidates--those not in the top three and 13% are undecided. Much more of the men's responses (14%) than the women's (8%) indicate they are supporting these "other" candidates. But there are a lot more undecided women voters (26%) than there are men voters (18%). Almost a third of the voters expected to come to the polls in the Democratic primary are either undecided or supporting candidates who may not be in the running if they don't make substantial gains. That includes 41% of "independents" (remember, those not affiliated with a party--"decline-to-state voters") can participate in the election here--as opposed to the Republican Party primary where only those registered with the GOP can do so.