April Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

by cali_girl_in_texas [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a "Partisan Factor" (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

I am proud to announce that... (*drumroll*) ...we now have a Democratic registration advantage in the 15th and 26th Assembly districts!
ASSEMBLY


Republican-Held Seats (12)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug LaMalfa
32.05%
47.27%
R+15.22
3
Rick Keene
34.21%
41.42%
R+7.21
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.59%
40.84%
R+2.25
15
Guy Houston
39.29%
38.34%
D+0.95
26
Greg Aghazarian
41.74%
40.23%
D+1.51
34
Bill Maze
33.75%
45.87%
R+12.12
36
Sharon Runner
37.59%
41.38%
R+3.79
64
John Benoit
34.66%
43.95%
R+9.29
71
Todd Spitzer
27.58%
50.75%
R+23.17
75
George Plescia
29.80%
42.32%
R+12.52
78
Shirley Horton
42.14%
32.46%
D+9.68
80
Bonnie Garcia
46.31%
36.01%
D+10.30

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.2
R+23.9
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.2
R+12.2
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+2.3
R+5.5
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
D+1.0
D+5.3
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
D+1.5
R+2.5
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+12.1
R+21.1
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+3.8
R+10.4
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+9.3
R+8.4
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+23.2
R+24.2
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+12.5
R+7.9
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+9.7
D+12.0
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+10.3
D+13.2


Democratic-Held Seats (11)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
45.60%
27.87%
D+17.73
8
Lois Wolk
46.83%
28.96%
D+17.87
13
Mark Leno
57.75%
9.00%
D+48.75
14
Loni Hancock
60.21%
14.37%
D+45.84
19
Gene Mullin
50.77%
21.86%
D+28.91
22
Sally Lieber
44.32%
23.35%
D+20.97
27
John Laird
48.95%
25.81%
D+23.14
30
Nicole Parra
46.74%
37.88%
D+8.86
40
Lloyd Levine
48.42%
27.43%
D+20.99
46
Fabian N??ez
65.10%
11.33%
D+53.77
52
Mervyn Dymally
69.36%
11.09%
D+58.27

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+17.7
D+21.9
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+17.9
D+18.2
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+48.8
D+64.1
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+45.8
D+56.0
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+28.9
D+39.3
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+21.0
D+34.5
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+23.1
D+31.7
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+8.9
D+1.7
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+21.0
D+24.7
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+53.8
D+64.4
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+58.3
D+72.2


SENATE


Republican-Held Seats (5)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
15
Abel Maldonado*
40.36%
36.43%
D+3.93
19
Tom McClintock
37.40%
39.71%
R+2.31
29
Bob Margett
32.85%
43.77%
R+10.92
33
Dick Ackerman
27.88%
49.70%
R+21.82
37
Jim Battin
35.87%
43.46%
R+7.59

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+3.9
D+8.0
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+2.3
D+1.4
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+10.9
R+10.0
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+21.8
R+21.4
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+7.6
R+7.3


Democratic-Held Seats (6)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
46.96%
31.71%
D+15.25
7
Tom Torlakson
47.73%
29.62%
D+18.11
9
Don Perata
60.70%
12.96%
D+47.74
21
Jack Scott
46.47%
27.85%
D+18.62
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.88%
24.81%
D+26.07
25
Edward Vincent
59.96%
19.58%
D+40.38

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+15.3
D+16.2
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+18.1
D+24.4
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+47.7
D+58.1
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+18.6
D+26.9
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+26.1
D+33.3
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+40.4
D+46.3



Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF's, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District PF
80
D+13.2
78
D+12.0
15
D+5.5
30
D+1.7
26
R+2.5
10
R+5.3
64
R+7.9
75
R+8.4

Senate

District PF
15
D+8.0
19
D+1.4

Posted April 21st, 2008 by Syndicated