Ballot Box Balancing Act in California Health Care Reform

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Anthony Wright
Executive Director of Health Access California

Mike Zapler of San Jose Mercury News has a downer of an article about the hurdles of winning health care reform on the ballot. He writes about the odds of any ballot measure, especially those with a funded opposition. The history on health reform isn't pretty either. In the early 1990s, two such measures, Prop 166 and Prop 186, got 32% and 27% of the vote, respectively.

THE CASE WE CAN WIN: But as my colleague Beth Capell says in the article, we've been through a lot of campaigns since then, and we've learned a lot. The two most recent ballot measures that would have expanded health coverage were much, much closer. Prop 72 in 2004, to expand on-the-job coverage, got 49.2% of the vote--so health reform went from double-digit trouncings to a less than one percent gap. Prop 86 in 2006, a tobacco tax that partially went to expand children's coverage, got 48.2%--a similarly narrow margin. The public has seemed much more willing to support health reform, even with heavy spending against these measures, and is seeming more inclined by the moment. While these weren't victories, the trends are in the right direction.

And Steve Maviglio at the California Majority Report notes, after recounting the potentially significant opposition, what might take a health reform measure over-the-top: A broad-based coalition that includes unlikely allies and broad constituencies, and that includes Governor Schwarzenegger. Governor Schwarzenegger was against both Prop 72 and 86--he campaigned against Prop 72 and was featured the attack ads. If you believe that the Governor has an influence on more than 2% of the electorate, then you can see how health reform can be put over the top.

ONLY WITH US: But the Governor can help, he can't do it alone. His failed special election effort showed that. In order for this to work, it needs to be a proposal that a broad constituency can get behind, which includes the over 100 consumer, community, and labor groups that have been active in the Its Our Healthcare! campaign this year, and that are that traditional base of health reform.