The Black Vote for President in 2008

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Sharon Kyle and Dick Price

The presidential primaries for both parties could be all over but the shouting come February 5th. By then, voters in 32 states—including big hitters like New York, Florida, Michigan, and our own California—will have selected their party’s nominee. With roughly 6% of California’s voting population, Black voters could have a decisive voice here in California as in other key primary states, such as South Carolina, Florida, and New York.

Will Black voters line up lockstep behind the potential first-ever Black major-party presidential candidate Barack Obama as they did for Jesse Jackson in the 80s? Will the Black vote instead fracture along gender lines, with Black women lining up to support Hillary Clinton as the first-ever woman presidential candidate? Or will North Carolina Senator John Edwards’ increasingly hard-edged populist message capture Black voters in significant numbers?

To discuss this and other topics related to the upcoming presidential election, television talk show host, radio personality, and author Tavis Smiley addressed a group of Black and Brown community leaders and political activists at the Urban Issues Forum in Los Angeles in late December.

Growing political sophistication

When asked, “What will it take to win the Black vote?” Smiley replied, “I don’t think it’s plausible or possible in this presidential election to win the Black vote.” Speaking before a nearly all Black audience, Smiley decried the whole notion of a unified Black voting bloc. “There are Black voters, sure. But a Black vote, no—at least given the demographics on the Democratic side.”

As evidence, he pointed to Cornel West and Oprah Winfrey supporting Obama, Danny Glover backing Edwards, congressional representatives John Lewis and Barbara Lee supporting Clinton, and the difficulty he’s having in making up his own mind.