A Blue State Getting Bluer

by Julia Rosen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

The turnout numbers for the presidential primary were absolutely insane.  The official numbers from Secretary Bowen state that 74.26% of registered Democrats in California cast ballots.  Now that isn't totally accurate because that includes the DTS voters who pulled Democratic ballots.  The real number is expected to be closer to 65%.  But even that number is striking.  Tim Herdt has a great column today on how this is part of a shift to Democrats larger than just this one election.

Those numbers suggest that Republicans can no longer count on a voter-turnout advantage that in the past has helped GOP candidates overcome the party's minority status in voter registration.

"Republicans have almost always done better because they have the people who always vote," said Republican analyst Tony Quinn. "But this year you had the reverse."

To some degree, the numbers reflect the unusual excitement arising from the contentious nomination battle between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, an unsettled battle that may linger until the Democratic convention in August. That historic contest helps explain - but does not fully account for - the enormous disparity between the 5.1 million votes cast for Democratic candidates in the state Feb. 5 and 2.8 million cast for Republicans.

Quinn, co-publisher of a data book that breaks down every political district in the state, says the Democrats' February surge in turnout is the continuation of a trend.

It has been conventional wisdom in California that since Republicans outperform their voter registration, compared to Democrats that the voter registration gap is not as significant as it appears.  That appears to be changing.
Herdt points to the Lt. Gov. race in 2006 as being further evidence of a trend.  The last-minute polls had McClintock leading Garamendi.  But Garamendi won on election day by 4%.  The turnout model the pollsters were using was off.  Democrats turned out in greater numbers than expected.

Quinn, who's been analyzing partisan races in California for decades, said it was once a truism of state politics that because of the partisan turnout advantage a Republican could win any district in which GOP registration reached 40 percent.

He doesn't believe that applies any longer.

Although both parties have declined as a share of the electorate in recent years as the number of independents has soared, Quinn said the remaining Democrats are more loyal and more reliable than Democratic voters of the past.

"You've got a more pure Democratic electorate," he said. "You no longer have the Reagan Democrats."

(emphasis mine)

That means that there are a lot more seats in play than were earlier.  Dave is the man with the numbers, but as we look to challenge Republicans for their seats. the calculation of viability for Democrats in an individual district is changing.  That is a damn good thing considering our voter registration numbers are slipping, though admittedly the Republicans are dropping faster.

Naturally this has an impact on the presidential election.  Sen. McCain has been making noise about making a run here in California for our electoral votes.  The numbers last month should give him pause.  California is a blue state.  If anything we are trending more blue, not purple.

The latest set of numbers, Quinn believes, will make it more unlikely that Republicans will seriously compete in California in the fall presidential election.

"It makes it very hard for Sen. John McCain's people to argue they will be able to put the state in play," he said. "Those turnout figures are bad because, in order for this state to be in play, Republicans have to come out the way they did with Reagan."

Ben Tulchin, a pollster at Greenland Quinland Rosner notes that there is currently a 21%  gap between Republican turnout numbers and Democrats.  That is nearly double what Al Gore and John Kerry carried California with.