CA-04: Brown Leads Both Ose AND McClintock In General Election Matchups

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Absolutely huge news from out of CA-04.  On the eve of the primary, with Tom McClintock and Doug Ose locked in a death struggle of a primary, spending over $4 million dollars because they think the nomination is a prelude to an easy walk to a victory in November and a seat in Congress, Charlie Brown's campaign has released an internal poll showing him leading both Republicans.

The survey of 400 likely General Election voters was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group on May 14th and 15th.  The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.

Despite a $4 million advertising blitz by the GOP frontrunners, the poll shows Brown leading Ose 38% to 34%, and leading McClintock 42% to 40%.

The survey also showed a generic ballot between the Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress tied at 43%, with self identification of voters moving sharply away from the often cited voter registration statistics of the district.

"The numbers confirm that district four voters want real local leadership, and they want change," Brown said.  "No matter which career politician wins the GOP Primary on Tuesday night, this race will continue to offer a clear contrast between a partisan approach that has failed America , and a country first approach that leads by example to solve problems."

It's an internal poll, and internal polls are often favorable to those who release them.  But Brodnitz is a solid pollster and there's no reason to believe that Brown hasn't benefited by staying out of the primary scrap, while cementing his excellent reputation among voters in the 4th District.  

But more than that, the internals of the poll show that voters in this so-called "red" district are desperate for change and believe in Charlie's ability to help bring it about.  On the flip:
The right-track/wrong-track numbers in this poll are 18/70.  That's astounding for a district John Doolittle has represented for years.  But the killer number is this: 37% of those polled self-identified as Republicans, and 35% as Democrats.  In August of 2006, the numbers were 42% Republican and 27% Democratic.  That's an enormous swing in less than two years, and remember, Brown almost pulled off the upset in 2006 when the district was far more Republican.  Brown's net favorables are higher than any of his challengers as well.

In the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans among DTS voters 50-34.  If that's what to expect in this district in November, Brown's going to win this thing.  I know there are a lot of preconceived notions out there that this is Republican country and Brown faces an uphill battle, but one thing is very clear to me - there are NO MORE Republican districts left, and a strong Democrat can win anywhere in the country.  And Charlie Brown is one of the strongest we've got.

Very exciting stuff in this poll.