CA-12: What will a Speier run really mean?

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

There's another report on the Jackie Speier primary challenge for Tom Lantos in today's Matier and Ross:

she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know. "The good news is Congressman Lantos has finally come back to the district," she said, a digging reference to his trip home this week for the holidays and to attend a congressional subcommittee hearing on the Coast Guard's role in the big bay oil spill.

Challenge or not, Lantos, who will turn 80 in February, said through his spokeswoman: "I fully expect to win the primary in June and the general election next November. "As always, I intend to run a positive, constructive campaign," he added, "and I trust that any opponents will do the same."(SF Chron 11.24.07)

This district is literally 2 blocks from my home, as it knifes through the middle of San Francisco, but it's far different from Pelosi's seat. By any measure, it's a very progressive seat, but different factors are in play. It's a heavily minority seat, primarily Asian-Americans, but Speier was easily elected in her final run for state senate in 2002. (The districts don't perfectly overlap, but it's close.)

As has been mentioned around here a couple of times, Lantos has been known to use his Holocaust survivor history in discussions of foreign policy. And while these experiences are valid, questions remain about whether he can accurately represent the anti-war sentiments of the district. He supported the initial invasion, and has been fairly hawkish on Iran. However, he's been a vocal critic of recent Iraq strategy, and has been a useful voice for the Speaker as she seeks to promote better diplomacy.

It seems reasonably clear at this point that the Speaker would not be pleased to see Lantos taken out in a primary challenge. Lantos is a strong Pelosi supporter, and any way, the Speaker is no vocal supporter of primary challenges. However, given her relationship with Lantos, one would suspect that she would take this very seriously. Most assuredly we would see a strong Pelosi endorsement of Lantos, likely along with some money and a bit of her time if the race is close as we approach June.

There are a lot of competing forces at play here, a challenge to Lantos would be a very bold step for Speier, but it's still an open question at this point. However, Speier seems to have some tentative support in the netroots.