CA-SEN 2010: Schwarzengger/Boxer Hypothetical Gets Its First Poll

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

This should probably be noted today.

U.S. Sen. Arnold Schwarzenegger, rubbing elbows in the upper house with his uncle, Democrat Edward Kennedy?

Don't laugh. It could happen, according to a Field Poll released Monday.

The Republican governor, termed out of office in 2010, remains very popular with California voters and would give incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer a fight in what has been a solidly Democratic state, the poll found.

When the hypothetical question was put to registered voters in Field's most recent round of polling Oct. 11-21, Schwarzenegger had a one-point edge, 44 percent to 43 percent.

You could read this one of two ways.  Either Boxer is well under 50% and Schwarzenegger isn't going to get anything more than glamour-mag coverage from the media, so this is a danger; or Schwarzenegger has parlayed years of goodwill and the most visible political position in the state and perhaps the greatest celebrity in the world into a statistical tie, so this is not a danger.  Throw in the fact that the state may be headed to the crapper economically, and there's little Arnold sees fit to do about it besides more borrowing.

There's also the little detail of Arnold being almost universally disliked by his own party and not entirely likely to win the nomination (especially because DTS folks can't participate in their primaries), but that's just crazy talk.  But if you think that California Republicans would do the politically expedient thing and nominate Arnold if they thought he could get the seat, ask yourself when was the last time they did something politically expedient?