California (kinda) hearts Hillary

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

She continues to hold big leads in the primary race here, but that might change depends on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Field Poll (PDF) results here. You'll find all the typical numbers there, she has  45% to Obama's 20 and Edwards' 11. (Dem Race Field Poll) But today's Field Poll release was slightly different, more focused on Hillary, and uses data from back in the Clinton era to track her.  There's some interesting points there.

Most pointedly, Bill Clinton is really, really popular here. Always was, and always will be. Even during the dark days during the impeachment era, he was still clocking in at 54, 55 percent overall, and today he's still at that 57% mark. Hillary, occasionally strays below that magical 50% mark. She's at 48-39 Favorable now, but her peak was only at 55-39 in October 1999. More over the flip.
In the Chronicle, Carla Marinucci takes an interesting tack, questioning her ability to win the state:

That means Clinton, in order to carry the state, has "a more limited playing field than other candidates would have ... she almost has to write off at least a third of the voters who are unlikely to vote for her," DiCamillo said. "No other candidates have this kind of solidification of negative votes." (SF Chron 11/1/07)

One thing is clear, however, it would take a minor miracle to defeat Hillary, or frankly, any Democratic presidential candidate in November 2008 in California. As much as Rudy thinks he puts California in play, he's wrong. California is not in play, especially with the scary group of neocons that Rudy is surrounding himself with these days.

But the Clinton name still means something for people on both sides. It means there is a clear third of people that will never vote for her. But a third does not an election win. Hillary has a lot going for her; she's a formidable candidate. The question in my mind is are we willing to settle for more of Joe Lieberman's games or can we finally turn the page towards a brighter, non-dynastic, future?