California—Largest Prize--is Ground Zero in Race for Democratic Nomination for President

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Obama and Clinton in Trench Warfare in California’s 53 Congressional Districts for Democratic Delegates on Super Tuesday—A Day When 52% of Elected Delegates Will Be Chosen

By Frank D. Russo

Nine days before California votes, along with 21 other states and American Samoa, the race for the Democratic nomination for President is wide open between two candidates: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. On February 5, “Super Tuesday,” 52% of all the elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be chosen.

California will send the largest delegation to the convention—441—22% of the 2025 convention votes needed for nomination. While many, myself included, are fascinated by the polls and predictions of who will win California’s primary, the real focus in this state and nationally now turns to a fight for delegates, most of whom will be chosen in each of our 53 Congressional Districts.

While the statewide vote will provide a candidate with “momentum” and a victory, what is lost with this analysis is that we are electing delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The bulk of the action here takes place locally, in each of our state’s 53 Congressional Districts. 241 of California’s 441 delegates are elected based on the share of the vote the candidates for President receive in those districts. Only 81 delegates are elected “at-large” and go to the winner of the statewide vote.

The remaining 119 delegates are selected (not elected). These include 66 “super delegates” (Members of Congress, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Members, and a former DNC Chair). Also 48 Pledged Party Leaders / Elected Officials (PLEOs) committed to candidates who receive at least 15% of the statewide vote and apportioned by their share of the vote. Another 5 are also appointed who are “unpledged” to any candidate.

The elections that have taken place have elected 137 delegates, with Barack Obama leading with 63, Hillary Clinton with 48, and John Edwards with 26. California will elect two and half times as many delegates as have already been chosen on February 5.

There’s been much talk about “momentum” with each result so far—seesawing between Clinton and Obama, with each of them counted out at least once by a number of commentators. What the elections and caucuses to date have really done, besides the selection of these delegates, is to help capture the attention of voters in the states coming up, including California.