California Majority Report's 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial Race Rankings

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

As Governor Schwarzenegger officially enters lame duck status, chatter among Democrats about the 2010 gubernatorial race is already picking up. In this, our third rating guide, we've dropped five candidates, including several members of the California Congressional delegation who appear to be quite comfortable hanging around the nation's capital. And we have a new leader on the board as well as a new #2 and #3.

With a lockhold on the state's constitutional offices and the Legislature, Democrats are in a strong position to recapture the gubernatorial nomination. On the Republican side, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is drifting to the right to try to head off the expected run of State Senator Tom McClintock. That move will only help Democrats. In fact, LG Garamendi already has seized on Poizner's political positioning on Prop 93 to lash out at his weak performance in the wake of the San Diego fires.

In any case, here's our rundown for this quarter.
 
1. Attorney General Jerry Brown (Last Ranking: 2)
Almost by default, Jerry Brown has moved up to the top slot in this quarter's rankings. His former chief of staff, ex-Gov. Gray Davis, summed it up best last week at the Sacramento Press Club: no Brown has ever been defeated in a Democratic gubernatorial primary; not Jerry's dad, not Jerry's sister, and not Jerry. The early money says that tradition may continue. It's not that Jerry has been working it. Senate Republicans foolishly put him in the spotlight for his fight against global warming during last summer's budget fight. And even Arnold has helped him get headlines in the recently filed lawsuit against the EPA. Still, this isn't going to be a cakewalk. His position as AG handicaps him in the fundraising department. His quirky personality leaves him open to mistakes. And there's a certain faction of the Democratic electorate who aren't too excited about electing someone to the office who had it more than a decade ago. But in the meantime, Brown seems to be the man to beat.
 
2. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newson (Last Ranking: 3)
Newsom rolled to a virtually uncontested re-election victory earlier this month. And now he's promised to clean house and move forward with an ambitious agenda for the city by the bay. It will be interesting to watch his moves over the next few months. Newsom also weighed into the state's health care debate with a harshly critical attack of the Governor's health care plan. The party's progressive wing is in love with the guy, and he has high positive name ID among Democrats throughout the state. He's also got an Obama-like new generation air that would play well against Brown and Garamendi. And did I mention he can raise money too? Newsom will be a formidable candidate if he decides to take the plunge, but the does-he-have-the-fire-in-the-belly question still remains.
 
3. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (Last Ranking: 4)
Unlike Cruz Bustamante, Garamendi is using his office the way it should be used: delving into policy issues and taking advantage of Arnold's absences to generate massive amounts of publicity. In both the Tahoe and southern California fires, Garamendi was a fixture on TV screens throughout the state. Garamendi also recently made a bold political move by taking on the GOP's Steve Poizner, (who took his job as insurance commissioner) for Poizner's decision to drop massive coin on the anti-Prop 93 effort. That move that will endear him to establishment Democrats and give him a forum in political circles through November. Garamendi also stole two of Phil Angelides's top political aides. Be sure of this: No candidate will work harder for the nomination than Garamendi, and he's got 20+ years of chits to collect on. He does, however, need to prove that he can compete in the money department.
 
4. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (Last Ranking: 1)
LA's Mayor drops three notches in this quarter's rankings. Villaraigosa has been stuck in a political tar bit since the much-publicized split from his wife. Budget problems, telephone taxes, and other municipal issues have him stuck tending to the domestic home fires rather than being in the public spotlight that he so much enjoys. But don't count the Mayor out. He's playing a large role in Senator Clinton's California campaign (much of the California staff is an extension of his political operation). And perhaps sticking to the knitting of helping the city through tough budget times will pay off in a solid record of accomplishment he's yet to piece together.

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