California Poll Shows Support for Clinton, Giuliani, Prop 93 (Term Limits), Legal Residency for Undocumented Immigrants, and Ev

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The San Jose State Survey and Policy Research Center (SPRI) released today the second part of a poll taken earlier this month that showed Prop 93--the term limits measure--ahead 51% to 27% amongst likely voters with 21% undecided, a substantial majority continuing to support illegal immigrants becoming legal residents of California (59% of Californians and 53% of voters), and that there is support for a sales tax increase to support insurance coverage for Californians.

The poll can be found on the SPRI site along with results released Friday as to the Presidential Primary race. There is a lot more here on Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity (it continues to be high and above 50% of both voters and Californians), the direction of the state (down to only 42%-39% right track versus wrong) which is positively balmy when compared with the 26% who say the nation as a whole is headed in the right direction while 59% of Californians say it is "seriously off on the wrong track."

Presidential Primary

In the Democratic primary for President, Hillary Clinton is ahead with all primary votes by 42$ to 20% for Barack Obama and 14% for John Edwards. A full 24% of Democratic primary voters are either supporting another candidate or are undecided.

Clinton's support is up from the 37% level she was at in the SPRI survey in June. She is far ahead in every demographic and geographical segments in California--except for the youngest (age 18-34) and most infrequent voters where Obama is leading. In the 18-34 year old cohort, Obama is ahead 44% to 25%.

The data leads Phil Trounstine, the Director at SPRI to comment, "Unless Clinton implodes, it's hard to see how either Obama or Edwards can overcome her daunting lead in California." He goes on to say that, "What will keep Obama, Edwards, and perhaps others engaged in Califonria is their hope that if they do well in some Congressional Districts they can still pick up a significant portion of the state's delegation."

On the Republican side, this survey shows Rudy Giuliani far ahead at 34%, with John McCain (17%), Mitt Romney (11%), and Fed Thompson 7% trailing far behind. Giuliani dominates in all regions and demographic subparts of the state, except for liberal Republicans and those with incomes below $50,000 who support McCain. But, since independents cannot vote in the Republican primary and only those registered with the party may do so, these are very small slivers of the electorate. Perhaps key is the fact that Giuliani has 40% of the self described "conservatives" in the party--a large bloc--and leads comfortably over Mitt Romney who is at 15% of the conservative bloc. This is strange in light of all the talk of conservatives bolting the party if Giuliani is the nominee.