California Public Support for Taxes Declines in Context of Recession

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Bad news for California’s budget came in from the precincts today. The latest PPIC survey indicates that (1) voters don’t want to cut education’s budget; and (2) don’t want to raise taxes to avoid those cuts. Years of budget flim-flam – led by Governor flim-flam – have convinced voters we can simply ‘reorder’ priorities and get by.

I suppose we shouldn’t be too hard on the Governor. After all, he floated into office because of Gray Davis’ failure to fix budget problems earlier in this decade. Naturally he’ll be trying to avoid a similar fate by placing the blame on the Legislature.

For weeks now the Governor has been making appearances touting his rebaked version of Pete Wilson’s “solution” to budget woes (cut out the Legislature). But the day of real reckoning approaches.

Democrats, who have called for revenue increases, can raise about $2.5 billion in ‘fee increases’ that don’t require GOP backing because they are majority vote bills. Then we can lease or sell the lottery, the capitol, and anything else to raise money – and still have a multi-billion dollar problem.

Democratic interest groups have argued that problem can be solved through higher taxes – and have hoped that Republican lawmakers would be pushed by a combination of the Governor and public opinion into moving in that direction.

Today’s survey results make that less likely. When “likely voters” were asked about paying higher taxes to avoid school cuts, they rejected it by a 45-52 margin. A sales tax increase loses by even a larger margin (38-63). Republican voters – who play a large role in Republican primary elections – reject the ‘tax’ solution 2-1.

It’s an indication that if Republican lawmakers were somehow persuaded to put a tax hike on the ballot (as Pete Wilson did in 1993), it is a probable loser.

With many of the gimmicks used to ‘balance’ budgets in previous short-fall years no longer available, and with a cash-flow problem that will crest this summer, things look bleak indeed for the new leaders of the Legislature. And they deal with these problems starting with a ‘favorable’ rating by the public of 22%.