California Republican Party Convention Shows Signs of McCain Problems in November

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

New poll also underscores the electoral reality in California

By Frank D. Russo

Intrigued by the idea of California Republicans meeting in San Francisco, a city with 10.47% Republican registration, I nosed around the Hyatt Regency Hotel where this gang of 700 was convening.

Much has been written about the problems that the state Republican Party has with massive debts, lack of fundraising, a drop in party registration, an ideology out of touch with California voters as evidenced in any one of a number of polls—recent and for years. For all the talk at the convention, I didn’t see anything to convince me that John McCain can win this state in November against the Democratic nominee. The picture above shows the relatively monolithic turnout for the McCain meeting—starkly different from the diversity you would see at a Democratic Party convention. The same for the platform committee meeting pictures below.

And the buzz in the stories written about the convention continue with this theme. Embarrassing new revelations about violations of immigration laws in hiring a Canadian to handle much of the party’s affairs preceded the convention. Today’s articles question how McCain can win the state, given money, registration figures, voter enthusiasm for the Democrats, and the issues, in particular on choice and the war. They note that the last time a Republican Presidential candidate won the state was in 1988.

In the latest voter registration figures released by the Secretary of State’s office, Democrats widened their edge with voters to a 43% to 33% margin—up a click from the 9 points they had previously to 10 points. What’s more, Democrats actually turned out in higher percentages in February than is historically true, and with some independents swelling their ranks, twice as many voters voted for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama than John MCain and there’s about a 2.5 million edge that Democrats have in turnout.