Is California Still Blue With the Rise of the Independent Voter—and Will They Be Pivotal in the Democratic Primary for President

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a two page “Just the Facts” sheet reporting on the increasing share of “Decline to State” voters—those who have not chosen to affiliate with a political party and now amount to 19% of all registered voters in the state as compared to just 9% in 1988. They posit that these non-affiliated voters, more moderate than those registered with either the Democratic or Republican parties have divided loyalties and can influence elections and explore just exactly who these key players are demographically and in terms of political philosophy.

While DTS voters can be pivotal in California elections, however, these statistics, along with the actual election results for a number of years appear to this observer to show that at least for the present California is a decidedly blue or Democratic state.

While a plurality—39%-- of independents describe themselves as moderate-- and the remainder splits 31% liberal and 30% conservative (basically statistically insignificant , if one looks at the their leanings towards the major parties and combines that with the Democratic registration advantage over Republicans, that appears to be where matters stand—at least for the present.

43% of Californians are registered Democrats and 34% are Republicans. As registration figures go, this gives the Democrats a 9 point advantage. When the 19% of those registered are asked which party they lean towards, 43% respond the Democratic Party and only 30% indicate the Republican Party, with another 27% volunteering neither party. Within these independents who have a leaning, that gives Democrats a 13 point advantage. Put another way, those independent voters who don’t lean are only 5% of all of those registered—not enough to offset the 9 point advantage Democrats go in with in light of those registered with either major party, not to mention the edge in the leaning independents.