California Voters Rejecting Ballot Proposition to Overturn Supreme Court Ruling on Same Sex Marriage 51% to 42% in Field Poll:

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just released their findings showing that if the election were held today, California voters would reject the “Limit on Marriage” Constitutional Amendment by a margin of 51% to 42%. A look at the numbers reveals that this measure is in deep trouble, as knowledge about the initiative measure is high for this far in advance of the November election and it is rare, once an initiative falls behind, for it to gain more yes votes.

Field found that 62% of the likely November electorate have already seen or heard about Proportion 8.
Field then asked:

“(As you know) Proposition 8 is the “Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment.” It amends the California constitution to provide that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 8, the Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment?”

Not only is a majority (albeit 51%) opposed to this measure, one of the most significant findings is that only 7% of likely voters are undecided. The proposition is not ahead with voters in any age groups, including the state’s 65 year old and above category where it trails, within the margin of error 47% to 46%, the closes it comes to breaking even.

Field’s numbers are remarkably similar to ones they obtained shortly after the California Supreme Court’s ruling in a large sample of voters. Take these two polls together and you have some bad news for the proponents of Prop 8. As we reported on May 28:

“The California Field Poll, long considered the gold standard of state polls, has just released a survey of 1052 California voters that shows the ground has shifted on same sex marriage and by a large margin they support same-sex marriage and will defeat a measure that looks likely to qualify for the November ballot. The results are unmistakable as Field asked a number of questions in a number of different ways over a ten day period ending Monday.

“By a margin of 51% to 42% California voters support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Split into a random subsample, by a 54% to 40% margin, voters oppose the idea of changing the California State Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, thereby barring marriage between gay and lesbian couples. Another subsample, by a 51% to 43% margin, would vote against a November ballot initiative defining marriage as between a man and a woman.”