Cavala: Field Poll Provides a Few “What If’s”--And a Daunting Challenge to the G.O.P.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

So, ‘what if’, the California primary election had not been the subject of political meddling this year? California moved the presidential portion of its primary into February to have more of an impact on the process. (Or was it to allow California politicians the ability to ingratiate themselves to the probable nominee, Hillary Clinton?)

Clinton won that February event – to no avail. Had the primary date been left for June 3rd, the latest Field Poll shows that Barrack Obama would trounce Hillary Clinton 51-38 and would be the uncontested nominee of the Democratic Party for President.

This would have provided Democratic politicians with the opportunity to ingratiate themselves to President Obama. So much for foresight.

The Field Poll also finds that Obama will kill McCain in California – bringing the accuracy of the Los Angeles Times poll, which showed a more narrow Obama win, into question in yet another election. (Is the Times pollster a relative of the editor?)

More importantly, all of the polls show that voters learn during the course of a campaign and that they are willing to apply what they learn. They change their minds in the light of new information. It’s what makes managing a political campaign so much fun.

Smart politicians learn from the voters. Field asked them (voters) whether they wanted the “dream” ticket. Would Hillary’s supporters be more likely to support Barrack if she was on the ticket and vice-versa? Between 87% and 92% said they’d be more likely to support the ticket, or that it would make no difference, if the two were paired.

Obviously, they should be paired. The first duty of the Vice-Presidential candidate is to help elect the ticket. In California, at least, that means our nominee should choose his (or her) beaten rival as the number two. Silly talk about incompatibility isn’t taken seriously by those who matter. Only 13% of the Democrats are less likely to support an Obama/Clinton ticket. And that’s today, with three primary elections and a rules committee fight to go.