Cavala: New California Registration Figures May Mean Democratic Gains in State Assembly Seats

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

In 2004 I ran the campaign for Patti Davis against Incumbent Shirley Horton in AD 78 – a San Diego seat running from Chula Vista to the northern neighborhoods of the City of San Diego. We lost by about 1200 votes with registration at 41% Democratic and 35% Republican. Maxine Sherard lost by about 5000 votes with similar registration in 2006.

Today registration in the 78th is 42.5% Democratic to 32% Republican – before any registration effort for November is made. That difference – a four point spread – translates into about 7000 net votes: the Republican loses 4000 and the Democrat picks up 3000. With those numbers both Davis and Sherard would have won their elections. After a voter registration drive, the Democratic nominee in AD 78 should win easily this November.

Assembly District 15 is the last remaining “Bay Area” seat held by the Republican Party. It is actually only partially “Bay Area”, since the GOP line drawers filled in the shortfall in population with Elk Grove, a Republican suburb of Sacramento, and with conservative territory in San Joaquin. Even with these additions, the seat has gone Republican by about 10 points (55% to45%) in past elections. Registration was at 38% Democratic and 40% Republican. Today it stands at 39% Democratic and 38% Republican. Additional registration could make the results here a squeaker.

In AD 80, the Coachella Valley/Imperial County seat, Steve Clute lost the state’s closest contest for the Democrats in a 45.6% Democratic to 37.4% Republican seat. Subsequently registration has moved to 46.3% Democratic to 35.6% Republican. With those figures, Clute would have defeated Bonnie Garcia handily.

In the central valley, Democrats have been used to financing huge voter registration drives to simply try and maintain their previous level of support. But the recent statistics show that AD 17, the site of million dollar campaigns for Mike Machado and Cathleen Galgiani, has improved from 47-37% to 48-35%. A registration drive should push Republican numbers below 35% and off the table of ‘competitive’ seats. In Fresno, the seat of Juan Arambula which had been losing registration for the last five years, not only stabilized this year, but showed marked improvement with a 2 point decline in Republican registration (36% to 34%). Only in AD 30, the Kern-Kings-Tulare-Fresno seat of Nicole Parra has registration been stable: 47%-38% when Parra won in 2006, 47%-38% for the Mayor of Shafter against the 2006 Republican loser, Gary Gilmore.