Cavala: Obama Will Be the Nominee--Happy Days Are Here Again

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

While I have many close friends who support Clinton and who support Obama, I have not been involved with either campaign. As a professional Democrat, I’ve watched the contest between the two of them evolve – often unexpectedly – for months.

I now believe Obama will win our nomination. His lead among delegates was built by his activist-based victories in states that allocate delegates by caucus. You win such states by having the money to compete on the ground (which has been internet based for Obama) and by generating excitement among the faithful. For all her strong points, Clinton has been unable to generate activist excitement. And because her fundraising was centered around contributors to her husband (‘investors’) she was able to raise a lot of money but not a lot when compared to Obama.

Clinton has been able to compete financially against Obama in the large, primary states while conceding the caucus states. But all states now allocate delegates in proportion to the votes cast (as opposed to the old days, when all of California’s delegates went to George McGovern). So even with impressive victories in California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio and now Indiana, Clinton’s delegate total only advanced proportionately. Obama built his 150+ advantage in caucus states.

As for “superdelegates”, Clinton had an early advantage because of the relationship most of them had with her ex-president husband. But those who remained uncommitted were obviously people who had turned down her (and Bill’s) importunities. Among them the edge clearly shifted to Obama. Unless she looks like a sure thing, those superdelegates are likely to move to Obama. (Superdelegates are also likely to weigh the value of the new energy brought to the party by Obama on a different scale than others – and value it more).

Had Michigan and Florida obeyed the rules that govern all states in the delegate selection process, Clinton might well have the lead now enjoyed by Obama. But they didn’t, and those rules will be enforced by the party chieftains who put them in place in the first instance. The Clinton campaign can provide a rationale by which those rules could be broken, but they will not have officials who will pay attention to that rationale or the votes of other delegates to sustain such a “rule break”. Delegations will be seated, but without any decisive edge going to Clinton of the sort she might have won in a real set of contested primaries there.

So the doors are closing on Hillary Clinton. Her loss in North Carolina and very narrow win in Indiana will not change the coverage of the race back to “momentum” stories and away from “delegate count” stories. Barring a sweep of the final six events and an unexpected change of heart by party officials who have the responsibility of dealing with Michigan and Florida, her campaign will be over on June 3rd. She could take it further, of course, but too many of her own contributors, delegates and supporters will at that point begin to focus on beating John McCain and ending eight dismal years to continue a struggle that will appear increasingly divisive and mean-spirited on her part.