Clinton Campaign Memo Shows Hope for Latino Vote After L.A. Mayor Villaraigosa Endorsement

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

[Editor's note: Here in full is the memo received this morning from the Clinton campaign following the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa showing the strategy, hope, and spin in winning the Democratic nomination for President on the strength of Latino voters, a large segment of the Democratic vote in California and the nation.]

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Mark Penn and Sergio Bendixen
DATE: May 30, 2007
RE: Hillary Clinton’s support among Latino voters

Today's key endorsement from Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is proof that the Clinton Campaign's focus and strategy to win the Latino vote continues to grow stronger. Mayor Villaraigosa is one of America's great mayors and a dynamic national leader, who will play a key role in the campaign, advising on a range of policy issues that he focuses on every day as the mayor of America's second-largest city.

Hillary Clinton has a significant lead with Latino voters across the board and they will play a pivotal role in Nevada, and in many key Feb 5th states – they are critical in California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey – and contribute to her lead in those states and other smaller states as well. They have been growing in Democratic support, and in the general election, they have steadily grown in importance. Latino voters have great respect for Senator Clinton. They have risen from 2% of the electorate in 1992 to what is likely to be about 7% in 2008. In the 2004 presidential election, an estimated 82% turned out to vote. Along with women, Hispanics are one of her most supportive and most important support groups. While George Bush captured about 40% of the Latino vote, Hillary is poised to reclaim the Latino vote that Democrats lost in 2004.

1. Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among Latino voters.

In the Latino Policy Coalition poll, 60% of Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton, compared with 12% or less for her opponents.

Latino Policy Coalition – Lake Research Partners March 13 and 21, 2007; Among Hispanics Democratic Primary Vote/Favorability
HRC 60 68
Obama 12 48
Richardson 9 38
Edwards 7 44

2. In key states with large Hispanic populations, Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming lead.

California (441 delegates) – Feb 5 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 16% Latino
2004 general electorate: 21% Latino
2006 general electorate: 19% Latino

In California, Clinton has a 13 point lead overall, widening to 41 points among Hispanics.

Field Poll March 20-31 Among all D primary voters Among Hispanics
HRC 41 59
Obama 28 18
Edwards 13 11