Dividing California's Electoral Votes by Congressional Districts Would Increase the Chance of Electing a President Who Lost the

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Dr. John R. KozaCo-author of Every Vote Equal: A State-Based Plan for Electing the President by National Popular Vote

The ballot measure to divide California’s 55 electoral votes by congressional district would magnify the worst features of our antiquated Electoral College system of electing the President.

If the district approach were used nationally, it would less accurately reflect the will of the people than the current system. In 2004, Bush won 50.7% of the popular vote, but 59% of the districts. Although Bush lost the national popular vote in 2000, he won 55% of the country’s congressional districts. If the district approach were unilaterally impose on an isolated large state such as California, it would greatly increase the chance that the White House would go to a candidate who did not win the most popular votes nationwide.

The district approach would not, as claimed, make California relevant in presidential elections. Candidates have no reason to campaign in districts (or states) where they are comfortably ahead or hopelessly behind. Currently, candidates concentrate over two-thirds of their money and visits on just six closely divided “battleground” states, and 99% of their expenditures in just 16 states. Thus, two thirds of the states are ignored in presidential elections.

The district approach would be even worse. In California, the presidential race is a foregone conclusion in 50 of the state’s 53 congressional districts. Thus, candidates would have no more incentive than they do now to pay attention to most of California. If the district approach were used nationally, there are only 55 “battleground” districts that would be competitive in presidential elections, so seven-eighths of the county would be left out of presidential elections. This is even worse than the current system, where two-thirds of the states are irrelevant.

A national popular vote is the way to guarantee that the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states becomes President. It is the way to make every person’s vote equally important to presidential campaigns, regardless of where that person lives.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the White House to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The National Popular Vote bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill is enacted in a group of states having 270 or more electoral votes, all of the electoral votes from those states would be awarded, as a bloc, to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).