February Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

by cali_girl_in_texas [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a "Partisan Factor" (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.
ASSEMBLY


Republican-Held Seats (12)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug LaMalfa
31.86%
47.28%
R+15.42
3
Rick Keene
33.81%
41.31%
R+7.50
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.19%
41.20%
R+3.01
15
Guy Houston
38.72%
38.82%
R+0.10
26
Greg Aghazarian
41.05%
41.21%
R+0.16
34
Bill Maze
33.23%
46.23%
R+13.00
36
Sharon Runner
36.61%
42.00%
R+5.39
64
John Benoit
33.98%
44.71%
R+10.73
71
Todd Spitzer
26.95%
51.27%
R+24.32
75
George Plescia
29.43%
42.79%
R+13.36
78
Shirley Horton
41.58%
33.10%
D+8.48
80
Bonnie Garcia
45.68%
36.49%
D+9.19

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.4
R+24.0
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.5
R+12.2
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+3.0
R+5.6
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
R+0.1
D+6.4
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.2
R+2.8
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+13.0
R+21.2
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+5.4
R+10.7
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+10.7
R+8.7
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+24.3
R+24.4
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+13.4
R+8.1
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+8.5
D+11.7
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+9.2
D+12.9


Democratic-Held Seats (11)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
45.18%
28.11%
D+17.07
8
Lois Wolk
46.17%
29.28%
D+16.89
13
Mark Leno
57.08%
9.22%
D+47.86
14
Loni Hancock
59.41%
14.59%
D+44.82
19
Gene Mullin
50.48%
22.18%
D+28.30
22
Sally Lieber
43.91%
23.81%
D+20.10
27
John Laird
48.60%
26.10%
D+22.50
30
Nicole Parra
46.18%
38.40%
D+7.78
40
Lloyd Levine
47.89%
27.75%
D+20.14
46
Fabian N??ez
64.07%
12.00%
D+52.07
52
Mervyn Dymally
68.49%
11.85%
D+56.64

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+17.1
D+21.8
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+16.9
D+18.0
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+47.9
D+64.0
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+44.8
D+55.8
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+28.3
D+39.1
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+20.1
D+34.4
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+22.5
D+31.5
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+7.8
D+1.4
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+20.1
D+24.5
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+52.1
D+64.0
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+56.6
D+71.9


SENATE


Republican-Held Seats (5)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
15
Abel Maldonado*
40.05%
36.82%
D+3.23
19
Tom McClintock
36.84%
39.93%
R+3.09
29
Bob Margett
32.37%
44.19%
R+11.82
33
Dick Ackerman
27.32%
50.06%
R+22.74
37
Jim Battin
35.14%
44.28%
R+9.14

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+3.2
D+7.8
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+3.1
D+1.2
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+11.8
R+10.2
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+22.7
R+21.6
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+9.1
R+7.6


Democratic-Held Seats (6)


District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
46.32%
32.14%
D+14.18
7
Tom Torlakson
47.16%
30.12%
D+17.04
9
Don Perata
59.52%
13.20%
D+46.32
21
Jack Scott
45.89%
28.18%
D+17.71
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.31%
25.01%
D+25.30
25
Edward Vincent
59.23%
20.16%
D+39.07

District 2002G
2004P
 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+14.2
D+16.0
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+17.0
D+24.2
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+46.3
D+57.8
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+17.7
D+26.7
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+25.3
D+33.1
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+39.1
D+46.0



Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF's, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District PF
80
D+12.9
78
D+11.7
15
D+6.4
30
D+1.4
26
R+2.8
10
R+5.6
64
R+8.1
75
R+8.7

Senate

District PF
15
D+7.8
19
D+1.2

Posted February 18th, 2008 by Syndicated