Field Poll Predicts California Voters Will Reject Landlord Backed Prop 98 But May Pass Rival Prop 99 on Eminent Domain

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just released its survey taken of likely voters in the June 3, 2008 election showing that three-quarters of these voters have head of the ballot propositions and that Proposition 98 is failing by 10 points, 43% to 33%, while rival measure Proposition 99 is favored by 48% to 30%.

These findings are in accord with the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey of voters released last week which showed Prop 98 failing by an even wider margin, 30% to 48% and Prop 99 holding a slim 8 point lead, 44% to 36%.

Why Proposition 98—Heavily Bankrolled by Landlords and Opposed in Over 64 Newspaper Editorials—is Losing Badly

A key finding in Field’s poll is that of those voting by mail (VBM), Proposition 98 is losing badly among those who have or are voting by mail. It fails by 16 points—31% to 47% in these VBM voters, many of whom have already cast their ballots, and who may account for up to half of the votes in this primary election. It will be difficult for this measure to make up that kind of deficit with day of election voters as many of those VBM ballots are already “in the bank.” It is also trailing by a narrower 35% to 39% amongst those who are expected to show up at the polls on election day.

Field’s results show that the more voters hear of Prop 98, the less they are inclined to vote for it. By a margin of 45% to 34%, those who have seen, heard, or read about the ballot measures (75% of the expected electorate) are opposed. Those who did not have knowledge of these ballot measures before being asked about them in Field’s poll are also opposed, but by a narrower 37% to 32%.

Like the PPIC poll, Prop 98 is failing by large margins with the state’s Democrats (26% to 52%) and non-partisan/others (24% to 45%), but is favored by Republicans 47% to 31%. In fact, the only other subgroup measured by Field that it is ahead in is with self described conservatives. It is failing by large margins with middle of the road voters (who constitute 44% of the registered voters according to Field) and liberals, and also, as in the PPIC poll, with both homeowners and renters.