Field Poll: Prop 93 on Term Limits Losing Badly as California Voters Approach the Plate

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The trend line is unmistakable in the California Field Poll released today which shows Proposition 93 losing 33% to 46%, with 21% undecided. It is dropping like a Sandy Koufax curve at the plate. Support for Prop 93 is down 6 points since the last survey was taken two weeks earlier when it was tied at 39% in support and 39% opposed.

Field’s poll is of 1,105 likely California voters—a large sample—that has a margin of error of 3%. The realignment it shows is that Republicans, once the strongest supporters of the measure are now in opposition 58% to 26%. In December, they were in support by the mirror image 56% to 29%. They have gotten the message of the conservative Republican led campaign opposing changing California’s term limits laws, one of the most restrictive in the nation.
Democratic support for the measure, tepid at best, has fallen to 37% with 39% opposed. Non-partisans are also opposed but by a narrower 42% to 32% margin. The No side is leading in all the major population areas in the state, among both men and women, and among voters in all age categories.

There is an interesting ideological divide here: Voters who describe themselves as “strongly conservative” oppose Prop 93 two to one--57% to 28%. Moderate conservatives and moderates are also opposed, but by narrower margins. Voters who describe themselves as strongly liberal are the one group backing Prop 93 by a 46% to 34% margin, but those who say they are moderately liberal are opposed 43% to 36%.

Voter by mail (VBM) voters, who have either already sent in their ballots or intend to drop them off at a polling place, are opposing Prop 93 by a wide 51% to 32% margin—so there are substantial ballots already cast against it. Those intending to vote at their voting precincts on Election Day are also on the voting no by a smaller but significant 42% to 33% margin.

This morning, Governor Schwarzenegger will headline a last minute appeal to California voters from the steps of Los Angeles City Hall with Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and representatives from good government groups including California Common Cause. Included will be Democratic and Republican legislators in support of the measure. But unless there is some truly amazing anomaly in the voters at the polls on Tuesday—a surge of voters coming out for the Presidential nomination contests that vote markedly differently—this one is going down fairly decisively. There are undecided voters out there—statewide, 24% of Democratic likely voters are undecided and a full quarter of the entire electorate—25% in Los Angeles County and 25% of those voting on Election Day in their precincts are undecided. But undecided voters tend to break along the lines of the trends—if these voters vote at all on Prop. 93 or other ballot propositions below the presidential choice.