Field Poll Shows Huge Swing in California Towards Obama—He Would Win Handily Over Clinton If Primary Were Held Today and They Bo

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has released late last night their latest survey showing that there has been a 21 point swing towards Obama since the February 5 primary and away from Hillary Clinton. Field shows Both Democratic candidates with a 17% advantage over John McCain in California. Obama has the highest favorable ratings by far of any candidate, especially with the state’s important non-partisan/other voters.

Don’t worry about California. All the signs are here for a big—I mean big Democratic year from the top of the ticket to local races. Democratic registration is up, compared with Republican registration, in every one of California’s 80 Assembly Districts—and that’s the trend since the February 5, 2008 presidential primary. Not only is Democratic registration up, Democrats are voting and turning out at the polls. And on top of that, voters who are in neither party, agree with Democratic positions and candidates in both Field’s polling and that of the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which released their own survey earlier this month.

Both Field and the PPIC polls buttress each other in many ways.

Hillary Clinton won California by 8 points in February. Field shows that Obama would best her, amongst registered voters who are Democrats or are Democratically affiliated independents, if the election were held today, by a margin of 51% to 38%--13 points. This represents a dramatic swing of 21% in the intervening 3 ½ months.

Obama is the preferred candidate with these voters over Clinton, including a number of demographic groups that she has had long standing advantages with—and that she and her supporters have ballyhooed about. Obama is preferred by 49% of women voters over 41% for Clinton, and he would win North and South, with voters in all categories below age 64, all racial or ethnic groups except Latinos, all levels of education except those who are high school grads or less, and all income levels except those with a household income less than $40,000.

Lest some think that Hillary Clinton’s advantage between the two of them with the 65 year old and up crowd, Latinos, the high school or less and $40,000 or less of household income voters, when you look at the numbers both beat John McCain by the same margin—17%. Obama beats McCain 52% to 35% and Clinton beats McCain 53% to 36%--the highest or near to the highest margin for both of them with likely voters. Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be an asset to the other as a Vice Presidential pick in the eyes of these voters.