Fineman and Arnold's Role in the Presidential Election

by Julia Rosen [courtesy of Working Californians blogs]

Why did Arnold pass up an opportunity to speak at the beginning of the Republican Presidential Debate last week? It puzzles me. The team behind Arnold carefully calculates these types of appearances and this goes against Arnold's spotlight loving nature. What was the reasoning. I know one thing, Howard Fineman is way off with today's column. He suggest that Arnold, Al Gore and Michael Bloomberg may be preparing a "third force" push for the presidency. This is just silly talk:

If I were a GOP strategist – or a Democratic one – I would be worried by Arnold’s body language. He and other major independent actors on the political scene – New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Al Gore, chief among them – comprise a Third Force that could upset two-party politics as we know it in the 2008 presidential race.

Indeed, although there is no formal alliance, Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and Gore have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential implications for 2008. They have come to share similar visions on the urgency of the global warming and health care crises, and a similar impatience with politics as usual.

This could be the year of the Third Force.

First of all, Arnold cannot run, something Fineman saves to gloss over at the end. Al Gore has moved to the left, at least in terms of public perception and is not where he was in 2000. Bloomberg has said publicly that he is not interested in running and now the tabloid rags in NY have moved on to rumor-mongering about a gubernatorial run in 2010 against Spitzer.

I know guys like Fineman wish a third party movement like Unity 08 would catch on, but there is absolutely no indication that they are gaining any traction. Furthermore, Democratic voters are generally happy with the quality of candidates that they have running. It was not all that long ago when liberal Democrats were wishing that Al Gore would make a late entry, saving everyone from Hillary Clinton as a nominee. Since then Obama has appeared on the scene and proven to be a strong candidate, raking in the cash and pulling in the crowds. Edwards appears to be an even stronger candidate than in 2004. Richardson continues to pick up traction, hoping to make the leap into the top tier. There is a small opening for a "male Hillary Clinton" type candidate, but it is a small one. The Republican opening is to the right and something Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich might fill.

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