The First Shall Be Last: The Dangerous Decline in Primary Turnouts

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Rob Richie
Executive Director
Fair Vote

Facts in the Spotlight:

• Voter turnout statewide primaries in 1966: 33.5%
• Voter turnout in 38 states with such primaries in 2006: 15.4%(the lowest in history)
• Ratio of voter turnout for those over 70 vs. those under 45 in Oregon’s 2006 primaries: 3.5 to 1

As the presidential nomination season is heating up, have you ever thought about the word "primary"? Going to the dictionary, one finds that the first definition is, "first or highest in rank, quality, or importance."

Well, in the case of voter turnout, the first shall be last.

Primary elections indeed determine who wins the great majority of our nation's elections for Congress and state legislature – most districts are safe for one party, and winning the primary is tantamount to winning the general election. But in contrast to turnout in November elections, turnout in primaries is sinking like a stone.

Plunging Turnout in Primaries

In 2006, for example, the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate reports that turnout in statewide primaries around the nation plunged by one-sixth to an all-time low of 15.4%, down from the previous low of 18.6% in 2002 – and less than half of the 33.5% turnout in 1966.

Oregon had the nation's sixth highest primary turnout in 2006 at 23.5%. Of those Oregon voters, more than two-thirds were older than 57 years old, with more total voters older than 70 than under 45 -- and those older voters turned out at a rate of three and a half times the rate of the younger set. Political consultant Rick Ridder estimates that the median age of voters in primaries is more than 60 – some 10 years older than the median age of voters in general elections.

These kinds of trends are similar by race and income. As one example, FairVote analyzed relative turnout in Oakland (CA) in the June 2004 primary and the November 2004 general election. Voter turnout in June was at least 47% lower than turnout in the November general election in every census tract predominantly made up of racial minorities. In contrast, turnout was 32% lower in predominantly white census tracts.