FLASHBACK: August 2003

by Bob Brigham [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Seeing the competing ballot initiative today, got me thinking about the utility of using the confuse to kill strategy in a low turnout election. It is my view that it has often worked in general elections -- and even high turnout primaries. But granting your opponent's talking point that something needs to be done, in my mind, is a disastrous idea for a low turnout election. We've seen how the granting the need for change in a weird, tiny turnout election has worked before:

SACRAMENTO, California (CNN) -- The Democratic solidarity that California Gov. Gray Davis had counted on to help defeat the gubernatorial effort crumbled in earnest Thursday as the state's lieutenant governor -- a fellow Democrat -- said he was putting his name on the October 7 recall ballot.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, 50, cast his decision as a political calculation on behalf of members of his party.

Political calculations don't work if you don't understand numbers. In related news, for the life of me I can't see what relevance a NATIONWIDE poll has in contrasting with a Field Poll (that even oversampled Dems) in CA. Seeing this campaign look like a Davis Recall "Get the Band Back Together" for a reunion tour effort isn't exactly encouraging. I put this out there to play Devil's Advocate, but I think it is important to get it out there because figuring out how to beat this initiative is critical and for my money this is the last initiative I'd move to accomplish those ends. So please rebut, but not until you've signed the petition against the GOP power grab. And speaking of which, where have I heard that messaging before? Oh yeah...