Forget Iowa. New Hampshire Will Play Its Key Role

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Let me get the disclosure out of the way: I lived in New Hampshire for 13 years, worked on five presidential campaigns (Gary Hart twice, Mike Dukakis, Paul Simon, Bill Clinton), was a state legislator for six years, and chairman of my county's Democratic Committee for a couple of terms. So, yeah, I admit I'm a little biased. But in my view, the real action in the presidential race isn't going to be in Iowa, it's going to be in the Granite State. Here's why.

It's an election, not a caucus. That means secret ballots, and none of this huddling in one corner of a room stuff. So there's no peer pressure, neighbor vs. neighbor dirty looks, or trying to raid votes from someone who doesn't meet the threshold. You pull the curtain and vote. Or you file an absentee ballot. And what voters do in the privacy of a polling booth or on the ballot at home sometimes is a lot different from what they often tell pollsters or will do in a caucus.

Independent Granite Staters swing elections. These aren't decline-to-state voters: most are true independents who swing from one party to another, depending on the importance of the election. You can literally walk into your precinct, declare your party to vote in a primary, and go back to being an independent the next day. Of course, a lot of "independents" are who we casually call "decline to care" voters here in California. But using voter history statistics, it's not that difficult to tell who will be turning out for the primary among this group.

Let me get the disclosure out of the way: I lived in New Hampshire for 13 years, worked on five presidential campaigns (Gary Hart twice, Mike Dukakis, Paul Simon, Bill Clinton), was a state legislator for six years, and chairman of my county's Democratic Committee for a couple of terms. So, yeah, I admit I'm a little biased. But in my view, the real action in the presidential race isn't going to be in Iowa, it's going to be in the Granite State. Here's why.

It's an election, not a caucus. That means secret ballots, and none of this huddling in one corner of a room stuff. So there's no peer pressure, neighbor vs. neighbor dirty looks, or trying to raid votes from someone who doesn't meet the threshold. You pull the curtain and vote. Or you file an absentee ballot. And what voters do in the privacy of a polling booth or on the ballot at home sometimes is a lot different from what they often tell pollsters or will do in a caucus.

Independent Granite Staters swing elections. These aren't decline-to-state voters: most are true independents who swing from one party to another, depending on the importance of the election. You can literally walk into your precinct, declare your party to vote in a primary, and go back to being an independent the next day. Of course, a lot of "independents" are who we casually call "decline to care" voters here in California. But using voter history statistics, it's not that difficult to tell who will be turning out for the primary among this group.

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