Good News for California Democrats in Latest Voter Registration Figures—Pickups in Key Districts Now in Sight

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Secretary of State issued an update of voter registration figures late yesterday that bode very well for Democratic gains in the November election and show the state is turning even more Democratic from the level of the State Assembly to the Presidential race. There’s an increase in the overall percentage of Californians registered to vote and the trend goes one way—blue.

In January, at the close of registration just before the February 5, 2008 Presidential Primary, California Democrats had a 10 point advantage over Republicans, 43% to 33%. This has now increased to a 10.7% margin as Democrats picked up their percentage of registrants and are now 43.5% compared with Republicans who dropped to 32.8%.

This shows that even after the Presidential Primary, which has seen tremendous enthusiasm and growth in the Democratic Party, not only here in California but across the nation, there is a clear trend favoring the Democrats. It isn’t just the presidential race that is driving these numbers.

But even more significantly, there are gains in key state legislative districts where past elections have been close.

In Senate District 12, where a recall of Republican Jeff Denham is on the ballot in June, Democratic registration has increased to 46.1% to 34.9% over Republicans. In January, Democrats had a 45.7% to 36% edge and the Republican share has decreased. Democrats have increased their totals in this key district by over 8,700 whereas Republicans have 530 less voters than they had 3 short months ago.

And Democrats are in much better shape in Assembly Districts 15, 78, and 80, among others. These are three districts where Republicans won by thin margins and where the Democrats are poised for a shift.

In Assembly District 15, centered in Contra Costa County, where Republican Guy Houston is term limited out, where Republican registration outstripped Democratic registration as late as January, Democrats are now ahead by 39.3% to 38.3% and have picked up over half a percent whereas Republicans have dropped by half a point. Democrat Joan Buchanan is a strong candidate for this open seat.

In Assembly District 78 in San Diego where Republican Shirley Horton is termed out, Democrats are ahead in registration by 42.1% to 32.5%, where the same trend applies with Democrats up in percentages and Republicans down. There are many strong Democratic candidates running in the primary.