Handicapping the Race to Replace Speaker Nunez

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

In the post term-limits era, it has been unusual to have a contested race for Speaker. Speakers Bustamante, Villaraigosa, Hertzberg, and Wesson were all pre-ordained. Speaker Nunez emerged as speaker after a lengthy four-way battle with now Sen. Jenny Oropeza, and then-Assemblymembers Dario Frommer and Joe Nation.
 
So this year's wide open battle -- with an election set for March 11 -- is fairly unique. The number of candidates and potential candidates is larger than it's ever been. And Nunez said yesterday he's not making an early endorsement.
 
Unlike Congress, the election will be decided by outgoing members as well as those who will be returning next year. For example, Speaker Nunez, Assemblymember Mark Leno, and other termed out legislators will get votes. Yet freshmen elected in November won't get a vote for the Speaker that will lead them (they do get a formal vote in December, but Speaker Nunez said yesterday the vote would come from within the Democratic Caucus next month, making that vote pro forma only).
 
Assembly-watchers tell me that a Speaker election is unlike any other. It's a personal, member-to-member struggle. Personal loyalties and friendships are put ahead of ideology. The role of outside interest groups is limited.
 
That said, here's the current line-up and the odds of them picking up the Speakership.
 
Karen Bass   3-1
 
As majority leader, Bass is formally next in line for the Speakership. She's well-liked among her peers and has an impressive record of legislative achievement (her freshman package of bills designed to improve the state's foster care services won statewide praise). She would be the Assembly's first African-American woman Speaker -- which would make her the only entry from the Black Caucus and one of two from the Women's Caucus. She's also likely to be a top choice of Speaker Nunez, though he has several lieutenants in the race.

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