How a Health Care Initiative Could Pass

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

While Democratic negotiators of a comprehensive health care package continue to meet behind the scenes with Schwarzenegger Administration officials to come up with a compromise bill, politicos of all political stripes are trying to figure out if the financing for what they devise could win the support of voters if it's put on next November's ballot.

In one corner are the powerful and well-financed opponents of any type of health care reform. Blue Cross, the California Chamber of Commerce, and the pharmaceutical industry all are likely to put big bucks into thwarting an initiative that threatens their profits.

On top of that crowd, the proposal by Democratic legislators to tax tobacco by $2 per pack also will attract the opposition of Big Tobacco. This past November, Big Tobacco spent upwards of $12 million in Oregon to kill a cigarette tax increase that would have used revenue for children's health care. Supporters of the effort were underfunded and disorganized. But still, a win is a win.

Add to that mix the radical California Nurses Association, which would attack any compromise from the left. CNA's political clout has taken a nosedive in the past two years, however, so its opposition won't be worth more than some scant media coverage. Still, it shows the odd bedfellows that would make up the opposition, making it look a little bit like the bar in Star Wars.

In the other corner, wearing the white hats, should be the state's major labor unions, the hospital association, and perhaps a few renegade corporations (such as Safeway) that know health care costs need to be under control. The California Medical Association and other health care providers also should be on board if the compromise meets their guidelines. Add to that the firepower of Governor Schwarzenegger and Democratic leaders, and you have a potent political team.

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