An Independent Expenditure Campaign that Backfired: Three Days Later, 8th Assembly District is Still a Stunner

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Doug Paul Davis

To illustrate how improbable Mariko Yamada's victory over Christopher Cabaldon was, let us recount a few key watermarks in the race.

Almost from the start, it seemed an uphill battle as Cabaldon had the audacity in January of 2007, weeks after Lois Wolk officially took office for her third and final term as Assemblywoman, there he stood in Yamada's home town with two of her colleagues, two members of the Davis City Council, two members of his own city council, and the Mayor of Woodland (and to boot Jeff Monroe was in uniform that day, but attended the event to show support for Cabaldon).

It seemed before Mariko Yamada even announced she was way behind and she never caught up (or so we thought).

To make matters worse, Yamada had turned off a large portion of her base in the Spring and Summer of 2007 with an ill-advised support (or at least non-opposition) to study areas on the Davis periphery. Large numbers of people who had been supporters of Yamada turned on her. There was talk of recall. A hundred people showed up for the County Supervisors meeting in July. Even the divided Davis City Council spoke with one voice.

In the winter of 2008, Cabaldon had engineered a seemingly easy victory for the party's endorsement. Even a few controversies at the pre-endorsement conference faded away to a resounding victory at the party convention.

Later that same week sitting Assemblywoman Lois Wolk broke her official neutrality to back Christopher Cabaldon. He stood in Suisun City with his three predecessors Lois Wolk, Helen Thomson, and Tom Hannigan. It was the perfect photo-op.

You had dueling headquarter openings--a packed house for Cabaldon's opening while at the same time, Yamada had about 30 people for an envelope stuffing party.

Nearly every major elected official backed Cabaldon. Mayors, Yamada's own colleagues, Supervisors, School Board Members, past members of the legislature, the Democratic Party, everyone except for most of the major unions. But judging from the efforts of the unions at the party convention, that would not be a big deal.

But something happened to change all of this. If there was a villain in this stage it was EdVoice. There was a moment at the party convention that was almost a portent. After Cabaldon received a resounding victory in the 8th AD Caucus at the convention, the Yamada folks had a few hours to garner signatures to pull the nomination once again off of consent. But a group of people in orange shirts showed up and were very coy about who they were and they shadowed the Yamada people trying to dissuade delegates from signing up. It was a very creepy moment in the election.