An Intriguing Thought: Mayor Newsom, the Next Governor of California

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Randy Shaw

“Gavin Newsom is the most progressive mayor in San Francisco history.”
----Newsom Campaign Chief Eric Jaye, Sept. 2007

Having easily won re-election, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has become the unlikely early frontrunner in the 2010 California Governor’s race. And this future race has already shaped the Mayor’s agenda for San Francisco, as his support for gay marriage, universal health care, and immigrant ID cards all boost his standing among key statewide Democratic constituencies. For the many progressives who remain dissatisfied with Newsom, his pursuit of the Governor’s office should be viewed as good news. It means that the mayor’s second term will find him strongly supporting organized labor, affordable housing, immigrants’ rights, and other causes popular with the more progressive primary voters. But it also means that Newsom will continue his friendly relations with Downtown business interests, who will be counted upon to donate to his gubernatorial campaign. With Newsom looking to burnish his statewide credentials, and Board President Aaron Peskin eager to boost his already outstanding legacy in his last year in office, 2008 should be an exciting time for San Francisco politics.

While the conventional wisdom is that Mayor Gavin Newsom will use his easy re-election victory to increase his local political clout, his re-election won him no additional votes on the Board of Supervisors. Nor does it increase the likelihood of the Mayor pushing ballot measures, as he has been reluctant to use his popularity for that purpose.

Instead, the real meaning of Tuesday’s victory is that it puts the 2010 Governor’s race directly in Gavin Newsom’s sights. And hard as it may be to believe about a mayor who narrowly won election in 2003, was blamed by national Democrats for John Kerry’s defeat in 2004, and who in 2006 engaged in a sexual affair with a City Hall employee who was the wife of his closest aide, Newsom may actually be the current Democratic frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination.

Newsom’s leading challengers have had very difficult years.

Newsom the Front-Runner:

The onetime favorite for the Democratic nomination, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, has suffered from revelations that he was having an affair with an Univision reporter who was often covering the Mayor’s office. This affair became far more politically damaging to Villaraigosa than Newsom’s sexual relationship with the wife of his top aide, as the LA Mayor was married with young children, received far more critical local media coverage, and was a victim of racist media stereotypes of “hot-blooded” Latino lovers.