Iraqi refugees returning to Iraq...A sign of success?

by Jabbar Fazeli, MD [courtesy of Blog for America]

The news of Iraqi refugees returning to Iraq from Syria is being reported as a sign of reduced violence and increased public confidence in the Iraqi security forces. There are reasons for optimism in Iraq but I am not sure that the return of the refugees is such a great sign of security success. If the mainstream media were to invest an hour or so researching this topic, they might come across the fact the Syrian government has introduced new visa rules for the Iraqis that make it impossible for them to stay in Syria. With no where to go and no ability to stay the Iraqis are simply choosing to leave before they get deported. The Syrians now require an entry visas for new comers. Those who need their stay permit renewed need to return to Iraq in order to obtain a visa to re-enter Syria. Like everything else in Iraq, the headlines don't tell the whole story, or even the real story. If we can take a breather from celebrating the refugees' return for a second maybe we can then see the dynamics in play here and start planning for the likely, and imminent, influx of refugees to Turkey, as it is the obvious path of least resistance for Iraqi refugees from this point on.

The return of refugees in such a haste may also result in their segregation by sect for the near future as they are often unable to return to their old neighborhoods due to continued security concerns in most areas. The government of Iraq will also have to manage squatters who took over many of the abandoned homes leaving the refugees with no home to return to. This is but a few of the many refugee issues that demand our attention. Valuable time is being wasted in spinning the news and declaring the refugees' return as an indisputable sign of improved security in Iraq--Improved security in Iraq is but one element in all this. Time will tell if any improvement in security is sustainable enough to prevent more refugees from leaving Baghdad and other hot spots again.

Below is an except from "Iraq decoded" that relate to the refugee issue (written in December of 2006):