IT'S A BIRD!.. IT'S A PLANE!... No!... IT'S.... "SUPER-DELEGATE!"

by Jeff Morris [courtesy of Blog for America]

  We've heard a lot lately about how significant the super delegates might be in determining the Democratic Pres nominee. A super delegates vote on the average, is the equivalent of 9,538 voters. Many of the super delegates are veterans of the "old school" wing of the Democratic party. The longer you have been an established figure in your party, the better for where you stand with these super delegates. Advantage...Sen Clinton. Hillary is the longer standing established figure.

  Sen Obama has captivated his many supporters with his message of change. He wants to bring a new way for the political system to operate in Washington, that will cut through the partisan divide . Obama's campaign speaks of the need for a new direction in both Washington, and in the direction America has been heading over the past seven years under Bush. Sen Obama's message also calls  for some much needed change in the "old school wing" of the Democratic party. This is the wing of the party that often goes to the middle ground, and always concedes to Bush in the end. 

   This Clinton/Obama horse race is going to remain neck and neck for some weeks to come. I would hate to see it come down to deals behind closed doors for delegates. I've noticed that the Primary wins for Sen Clinton have all been in states that are traditional Blue states. States where the Democratic candidate always wins in the general election. No real progress on the 2000 and 2004 Red/Blue State election map picture.

  With his Primary and Caucus wins Obama has demonstrated that he can win in the North, South, East, and West. North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Alabama, and Georgia (whom Obama has already won) all voted Republican in the past two Pres elections or longer. The Obama appeal, combined with the radioactive label that accompanies today's Republican party, could turn some states from Red to Blue this time around. There will undoubtedly be more swing states in this election if he's the Democratic nominee. Swing states that could have swung a different final result in both 2000 and 2004

  Obama's call for change has also reached a younger generation who appear to be turning out in record numbers. The Obama appeal has created a new voting bloc. A bloc that wasn't showing up on election night previously. His message of change and "yes we can" seems to have these new young voters fired up and ready to show up and vote for Obama. Many will be first time voters in 08. If this wave of new young Obama supporters does show up on election night, I think it will be next to impossible for 72 year old John McCain, representing a divided demoralized Republican party, to ever beat Obama. Great forecast if you're a Democrat! 

  With his ability to win in the South and in the Heartland, I have concluded that Obama will be the more electable candidate for 08. We need to win in 08 and we need a candidate who can win. I can think of no worse a scenario than a Democratic defeat in 08, and four more years of continued Bush policies (both domestic and foreign) under a 72 year old Pres John McCain.

Jeff Morris-Saugerties, N.Y.-  DeJaVu57