A Look at the Numbers: What the Early Caucuses and Primaries Mean in the Democratic Presidential Race and Why the California Pri

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The race for the Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. While making any predictions in this year’s volatile and late decided elections has proved many a pundit and pollster wrong, one thing is for certain: California and the rest of the states that vote on February 5 are going to matter a great deal in deciding who gets the nomination.

Looking strictly at the numbers and putting all the spin aside, with the first three state contests concluded, one of the leading Democratic candidates for President has received about 7,400 votes more than the other, hardly a significant difference. That candidate has won two more delegates than the other through the electoral process, hardly a predictor at all.

Let’s look at the raw vote total so far: In Iowa, an analysis shows that Obama received about 21,510 more votes than Clinton. It takes an analysis because the Iowa Democratic Party does not release actual vote totals, but Obama, in winning that race by a margin of 38% to 29% over Clinton, received about 90,820 votes to her 69,310 based on a turnout of 239,000 Democrats. http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/press_releases.php?id=972

Clinton won the New Hampshire primary over Obama by a 39% to 37% margin—or 7000 votes.

Clinton won the Nevada caucuses by what appears to be 6440 votes. Based on a turnout of 116,000 Democrats, as reported in today’s New York Times, an analysis shows that Clinton at 51% received about 54,590 votes to Obama’s 45% or 48,150—or a difference of 6,440 votes—not a tremendous amount.

Add all these numbers together and Barack Obama has about 7,400 more votes than Hillary Clinton—just not a significant difference. Their campaigns can spin these results any way they want, but the difference is de minimus.

The same can be said for the actual delegates won: Obama won 16 delegates in Iowa, to Clinton’s 15 and Edward’s 14. Both Clinton and Obama garnered 9 delegates in New Hampshire to Edward’s 4 delegates. And yesterday, Obama won 13 delegates to Clinton’s 12. Add them up and as far as elected delegates go, Obama has 38, Clinton 36, and Edwards 28 so far. Hardly an indication that the Democratic nomination is determined or even going in a certain direction.