New California Field Poll Shows Term Limits and Tribal Slot Machines Expansion Initiatives “Too Close to Call”

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Your Vote May Make a Difference on Important Ballot Propositions

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just issued new results that show, according to its director Mark DiCamillo, that as to Prop 93 on term limits and Propositions 94 to 97 on tribal gaming, “the outcomes of each are very much in doubt.”

Prop 39: Term Limit Reform

Field’s findings, taken between January 14 and 20, shows Prop 39 to reform term limits is tied with 39% in support and 39% in opposition with 22% undecided. It had been ahead in Field’s previous polling in December. The biggest decline has been in the state’s Republican voters who had favored the initiative 47% to 25% and now oppose it 38% to 46%. Democratic support is still in support by 39% to 33%, but lower than before. The “non-partisan/others” are evenly divided with 41% in support and 40% opposed, well within the margin of error of the poll of 3.4%.

The trend line for Prop 93 does not look good for its passage. Most ballot propositions need to start out far ahead, as did Prop 93, but then see support slip as the opposition campaign sows seeds of doubt in the voters. However, Field also found 22% of likely voters are undecided, including a huge 28% of Democrats likely to vote. Field further found that while voter awareness of Prop 93 is up—65% of likely voters “had heard” of it (versus 25% in December)—a full 35% just last week said they “hadn’t heard of it.” Bear in mind that this is of voters likely to turn out at the polls, and is therefore, a very high number.

DiCamillo noted the closely divided voter preference and stated: “It is expected that in the days leading up to the February 5th election the campaign organizations on both sides of these issues will be continuing their heavy print and electronic media advertising appeals.” Further evidence that this may be very close indeed can be voted in the numbers for those who are voting by mail (VBM) who are expected to be 46% of the overall turnout. VBM voters break 41% in favor and 40% against—statistically tied. This means that amongst those who have already voted, the numbers are close. Amongst the 54% of the electorate expected to vote in their precincts on election day, the numbers may be slightly reversed—37% in favor and 38% opposed, once again within the margin of error. A full 25% of those expected to vote at the polls on Election Day are still undecided. So, the last two weeks leading up to Election Day will be crucial.