New PPIC Poll Shows Clinton Leading Obama 43-28 in California; Pollster Says Race not Settled

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California has released a poll today that shows Hillary Clinton has a lead of 43% to 28% in the Democratic primary in California amongst expected voters. The poll is generally in alignment with the California Field Poll released earlier in the week that had Clinton at a 39% to 27% advantage. Nevertheless, when asked about the volatility of the electorate in races in other states and the possible effect of the South Carolina primary, PPIC President Mark Baldassare told me, “It just isn’t settled on the Democratic or Republican said.” He indicted other primary state results have a big impact on California voters and “We’re getting our news from other states.”

John McCain leads with 29% on the Republican side, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, with Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson (who has dropped out) at 10% apiece. McCain’s trajectory is up, Guiliani’s has been consistently down since June of 2007 when he had 31% support, and Romney’s support has remained within a narrow 2 point range.

The PPIC poll runs to 35 pages and finds an enthusiasm gap with Democrats much happier with their candidates, a feeling that the California primary is important and support for moving it to February 5. It also shows Proposition 93, term limits reform, to be tied, shows ratings of both Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature declining, the mood about the California economy much gloomier, and has a lot more about the California state budget, spending, taxes, and health care. Much of this will be analyzed in a separate article.

The PPIC’s poll was taken between January 13 and 20 and has a sample of 543 Democrats likely to vote with a margin of error as to the Democratic primary of 4%. It is an accurate snapshot of opinion two three weeks before the primary vote.

PPIC has had support for Hillary Clinton running between 41% and 44% in four polls going back to June of 2007. Barack Obama had 25% support in June, dropped to 20% in December and has gained 8 points to his current 28%. John Edwards polls 11%, Dennis Kucinich (who dropped out of the race yesterday) 5%, someone else 2%, and “don’t know” 11%. The question asked is, “If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”