New Registration Report Bad News for CRP

by ortcutt [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

The Sept. 4th, 2007 Report of Registration is out and it is mostly good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans.  While the percentage of voters registered Democratic was virtually unchanged, the percentage of voters registered Republican fell 0.35 percentage points.  The gap in registration widened both in absolute and percentage terms, from 1,304,964 (8.33%) in February to 1,344,865 (8.66%) today.

The HAVA-related voter roll purges continue unabated and the voter rolls shed a further 155,282 names between Feb. 10th, 2007 and the latest report.  Several counties (Merced, SLO, Santa Cruz) saw their voter rolls shrink by more than 7%, and San Joaquin County saw its shrink by more than 11%.

Sept 4th, 2007

Democratic: 6,599,660 (42.50%)
Republican: 5,254,795 (33.84%)
DTS: 2,980,622 (19.20%)
Total: 15,527,076

Democratic Advantage: 1,344,865 (8.66%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 6,667,437 (42.52%)
Republican: 5,362,473 (34.19%)
DTS: 2,953,414 (18.83%)
Total: 15,682,358

Democratic Advantage: 1,304,964 (8.33%)
I took a look at how the gap in registration had changed in each California county since Feb.  The trend was good almost everywhere.  The following table shows the gap in registration between the Democrats and Republicans and how that gap has changed since February.

County : Gap between D and R : Change in Gap since Feb.

Alameda: 37.95% : 0.16%
Alpine: 0.00% : 0.00%
Amador: -11.51% : 0.26%
Butte: -6.01% : 0.51%
Calaveras: -10.46% : 0.42%
Colusa: -11.17% : 0.07%
Contra Costa: 18.97% : 0.38%
Del Norte: -1.85% : 0.40%
El Dorado: -15.88% : -0.03%
Fresno: -5.70% : 0.05%
Glenn: -14.54% : 0.17%
Humboldt: 12.72% : 0.27%
Imperial: 28.80% : -0.13%
Inyo: -12.70% : 0.32%
Kern: -11.89% : 0.01%
Kings: -10.56% : -1.93%
Lake: 11.52% : 0.08%
Lassen: -18.12% : -0.50%
Los Angeles: 23.25% : 0.28%
Madera: -14.90% : 0.31%
Marin: 30.31% : 0.47%
Mariposa: -14.81% : 0.08%
Mendocino: 21.71% : 0.14%
Merced: 4.36% : 0.28%
Modoc: -20.50% : -1.15%
Mono: -7.00% : 0.54%
Monterey: 18.03% : 0.33%
Napa: 15.12% : 0.23%
Nevada: -10.06% : 0.73%
Orange: -17.08% : 0.53%
Placer: -22.10% : 0.50%
Plumas: -10.15% : 0.29%
Riverside: -10.51% : 0.48%
Sacramento: 8.55% : 0.26%
San Benito: 11.66% : 0.22%
San Bernardino: -4.54% : 0.08%
San Diego: -4.89% : 0.49%
San Francisco: 43.77% : 0.24%
San Joaquin: 2.16% : 0.18%
San Luis Obispo: -7.19% : -0.52%
San Mateo: 25.49% : 0.37%
Santa Barbara: 5.39% : 0.28%
Santa Clara: 18.29% : 0.40%
Santa Cruz: 33.32% : 0.31%
Shasta: -18.84% : 0.22%
Sierra: -11.25% : 0.30%
Siskiyou: -6.38% : 0.37%
Solano: 20.00% : 0.39%
Sonoma: 24.98% : 0.43%
Stanislaus: -1.93% : 0.12%
Sutter: -16.83% : 0.38%
Tehama: -11.99% : 0.18%
Trinity: -2.66% : 0.47%
Tulare: -13.85% : -0.14%
Tuolumne: -7.81% : -0.19%
Ventura: -0.99% : 0.48%
Yolo: 19.04% : 0.42%
Yuba: -7.49% : 0.92%

So, the Democrats made gains (relative to the Republicans) in every county except for El Dorado, Imperial, Kings, Lassen, Modoc, SLO, Tulare, and Tuolumne.

Notable for movement in the Democratic direction are Nevada (0.73%), Orange (0.53%), Placer (0.50%), Riverside (0.48%), San Diego (0.49%), Yolo (0.42%), Yuba (0.92%).

Here are some numbers for races that people may be watching.

CA-04

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 123,299 (30.26%)
Republican: 193,597 (47.51%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 124,177 (30.25%)
Republican: 196,279 (47.82%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 120,457 (32.39%)
Republican: 179,642 (48.31%)

CA-11

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 124,153 (37.55%)
Republican: 140,498 (42.49%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 129,488 (37.39%)
Republican: 148,492 (42.88%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 118,883 (38.04%)
Republican: 146,678 (46.93%)

CA-26

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 113,202 (33.61%)
Republican: 147,991 (43.93%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 114,914 (33.56%)
Republican: 151,434 (44.22%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 110,330 (34.53%)
Republican: 149,342 (46.74%)

SD-15

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 168,926 (39.69%)
Republican: 158,076 (37.14%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 175,229 (39.60%)
Republican: 165,054 (37.30%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 166,572 (39.31%)
Republican: 170,134 (40.15%)

SD-19

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 168,624 (36.23%)
Republican: 187,873 (40.36%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 171,108 (36.09%)
Republican: 193,020 (40.71%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 168,958 (36.19%)
Republican: 201,712 (43.21%)

AD-15

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 102,680 (38.26%)
Republican: 106,043 (39.51%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 101,941 (38.15%)
Republican: 107,124 (40.09%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 90,154 (38.12%)
Republican: 103,764 (43.87%)

AD-78

Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 84,676 (40.92%)
Republican: 70,344 (33.99%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 85,298 (40.94%)
Republican: 71,995 (34.56%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 88,836 (42.49%)
Republican: 74,454 (35.61%)

AD-80

  Sept. 4th, 2007

Democratic: 76,883 (45.59%)
Republican: 62,345 (36.97%)

Feb. 10th, 2007

Democratic: 78,631 (45.43%)
Republican: 64,749 (37.41%)

Sept. 6th, 2002

Democratic: 68,682 (45.91%)
Republican: 56,945 (38.06%)