New Voter Registration Data Show Democrats Continue to Surge in California Statewide and in Key Districts—Expect Pick up of Seat

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

California voter registration has increased to 16.1 million according to information released by Secretary of State Debra Bowen late yesterday afternoon. This is an increase of more than one million voters since the close of voter registration before the statewide primary four years ago. The percentage of eligible voters who are registered to vote also has increased from 68.95% in 2004 to 70% now.

The report includes data gathered 15 days before the June 3 Statewide Direct Primary Election and reflects updates to voter registration rolls, including the removal of registrants who have passed away, moved out of state, or have been determined to be ineligible to vote, as well as the addition of new registrants.

What’s most telling about these statistics is that Democrats have continued to add to their numbers after the February 5 Presidential Primary. The percentage gap between Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. But get this: The number of Republican registrants has actually dropped—if this trend continues, Republicans could see themselves outnumbered by “decline-to-state” voters who have no party registration—and who tend to vote Democratic. The numbers are significant in a number of Assembly and State Senate Districts that have been close contests in the past, and no doubt in key Congressional District where Democrats hope to ride a surge of new voters brought into the party by an interest in the Presidential race—most notably the campaign of Barack Obama.

In January, at the close of registration just before the February 5, 2008 Presidential Primary, California Democrats had a 10 point advantage over Republicans, 43% to 33%. This increased when figures were released on April 4 to a 10.7% margin as Democrats picked up their percentage of registrants to 43.5% compared with Republicans who dropped to 32.8%.

Yesterday’s figures show Democrats now are 43.75% of registrants and Republicans have dropped to 32.53%, an 11.2% advantage. There are now 7,053,860 Democrats compared with 6,518,631 four years ago. Republicans have dropped from 5,364,832 four years ago to 5,244,394.

These figures show that even after the Presidential Primary, which has seen tremendous enthusiasm and growth in the Democratic Party, not only here in California but across the nation, there is a clear trend favoring the Democrats. It isn’t just the presidential race that is driving these numbers.

But even more significantly, there are gains in key state legislative districts where past elections have been close.