Nunez: Registration Surge for Democrats Should Give Dems At Least Three New Assembly Seats

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Speaking at the Sacramento Press Club yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez said Democrats should add three seats to their 48-32 majority in the California Assembly in November's elections.
 
Nunez made the prediction after new figures from the Secretary of State show a surge in Democratic registrations in all but two Assembly districts, including three held by incumbent Republicans who will be forced to leave office. They include the desert/Riverside area seat held by Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia, the San Diego seat of Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, and the Contra Costa/Sacramento Delta seat held by Assemblyman Guy Houston.
 
Dems now hold a 45.7 - 36.5 percent edge in the Garcia's 80th district. And in Horton's 78th district, Dems now have a significant 41.6 - 33.1 percent lead.
 
In Houston's case, Democrats have now pulled within 272 votes of a plurality. That erases a 2.2 percent edge Republicans had in the 2006 elections. Democrats had fielded weak candidates in the past (such as Donna Gerber) in this district. But with a strong re-election effort by Congressman Jerry McNerney (much of the district overlaps his) and a heavy Democrat turnout in the presidential race, the 15th District will be a battleground.
 
Also on the radar: the Central Valley seat of termed out Assemblymember Greg Aghazarian. Democratic registration has increased significantly there, and registrations are virtually even (Dems now just down 294 voters -- a net gain of 1.3 percentage points since the 2006 elections.)
 
Democrats also will have to defend the competitive seat in the Bakersfield/Fresno area held by Assemblywoman Nicole Parra. Republicans came within a few points of picking off Parra in the 2006 elections. In a more Democratic year, the Democratic candidate should have the advantage.
 
Also looking better for Democrats: the Sacramento area seat of Assemblymember Roger Niello (Dems down by just 4.5 percent, a pickup of nearly 2 points); the southern Sacramento area seat held by outgoing Assemblymember Alan Nakanishi (Dems down by only 4 percent); Assemblywoman Sharon Runner's Lancaster seat (Dems pulled to within 5.4 percent, a pickup of more than 4 percent).
 
If Democrats field strong candidates for these seats, we could be looking at a pickup of 2/3+ seats.
 
Each of the marquee races are expected to be $1 million+ contests. The new Assembly Speaker will be responsible for raising funds and overseeing the campaigns.