Obama Victory Sends Resounding Message of Change

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Paul Hogarth

Barack Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucus last night sent a powerful message of change – as a record turnout (especially among young voters) picked him the winner with 38% of the total vote. John Edwards, who likewise ran a populist campaign that emphasized change, came in second place with 30%. When asked what was the most important factor in a candidate, voters picked “change” over “experience” by a 51-20 margin – giving Hillary Clinton's establishment campaign a humiliating 3rd place finish at 29%. Obama defied expectations by even beating Clinton among women and registered Democrats, which questions her viability as a candidate. But while Obama’s insurgent campaign has crystallized the message of change, the dirty little secret in presidential primaries is that the establishment always wins. As the fight moves to New Hampshire and other states, Obama’s campaign will have to defy historical precedent to dethrone the Clinton dynasty. I believe he can prevail, but it will be a different story for Mike Huckabee – who won last night’s Republican caucus.

According to the mainstream media, the big story last night was the record turnout in the Democratic presidential caucus – 236,000, well over the 150,000 predicted and more than double the 120,000 in 2004 (which mushroomed the number from 2000.) Sixty percent were first-time caucus-goers, and they overwhelmingly favored Obama. Most incredibly, over half of Obama supporters were under the age of 30 – proving that heroic efforts to get Iowa students and other young people to come back from Christmas Break paid off.

But the real message from last night’s result was that voters desperately want change, and Obama’s eight-point victory doesn’t come close to measuring how deeply that sentiment was felt. John Edwards, who ran a populist campaign that emphasized economic justice and a shake-up of the status quo, came in a strong second at 30% -- meaning that 68% of Iowans picked a “change” candidate when the alternative was a former First Lady who epitomizes the Washington establishment. “The one thing that’s clear from this result,” said Edwards, “is that the status quo lost and change won.”

Even Clinton had to acknowledge this in her concession speech, as she gave credit to all candidates for having presented the case for change. “We’re sending a clear message that we are going to have change,” she said, “and that change will be a Democratic President.” Throughout the campaign, Clinton had tried to re-invent herself as an “agent of change” – but the voters didn’t buy it. She was left trying to feebly tie the message of change back to experience – as she stood there flanked by her husband and his former Secretary of State.