Poll: Roseville’s Democrat Charlie Brown Leads Republicans Ose and McClintock for Doolittle Congressional Seat

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

On primary election eve in the hot race for California’s 4th Congressional District to replace disgraced Republican John Doolittle who is not running for re-election, Democrat Charlie Brown has released polling that shows him leading either of his likely Republican opponents opposition in the November election. The poll shows that either Doug Ose or Tom McClintock, locked in a tight and nasty fight for the Republican nomination in this district centered in Sacramento, would likely lose the general election battle with Brown if the election was held today.

The survey of 400 likely General Election voters was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group on May 14th and 15th. The margin of error was +/- 4.9%. Brodnitz was named “Pollster of the Year” in 2007 by the American Association of Political Consultants-- a bi-partisan award given to one pollster per election year. The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Barack Obama’s campaign for President.

Despite, or maybe because of a $4 million advertising blitz by the GOP frontrunners, the poll shows Brown leading Ose 38% to 34%, and leading McClintock 42% to 40%.

The survey also showed a generic ballot between the Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress tied at 43%, with self identification of voters moving sharply away from the often cited voter registration statistics of the district. Brown, a Retired United States Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, who is popular with veteran groups in the district, is attracting support from independents in this district as well as some Republican votes.

“The numbers confirm that district four voters want real local leadership, and they want change,” Brown said. “No matter which career politician wins the GOP Primary on Tuesday night, this race will continue to offer a clear contrast between a partisan approach that has failed America, and a country first approach that leads by example to solve problems.”

On Tuesday Night, Brown will gather with supporters at the newly opened Basic Urban Kitchen and Bar in Roseville to watch election returns. Then it will be off to the races for one of the few swing seats in California’s Congressional District races in what is expected to be a big Democratic year.

The poll was released with the full memo from Brodnitz, which had the following analysis: