Polling Memo Shows Clinton Ahead, But Race is Fluid in California Democratic Horserace for President

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

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From Julia Rosen
Working Californians

To: Working Californians

From: The Mellman Group, Inc.

Re: California Democratic Primary Survey

Date: April 25, 2006
This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of 400 likely 2008 Democratic primary voters, interviewed by telephone April 9-12, 2006. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

SUMMARY

Our just completed statewide poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 19 point lead in the California Democratic primary. Despite Senator Clinton’s lead, however, the race is far from over. Her advantage is based importantly, but not completely, on two malleable factors: her higher name recognition and the belief that she would be the strongest general election candidate. She is the best known contender, but Obama and Edwards are more popular among Democratic primary voters who know them. Furthermore, a plurality (27%) of Democratic primary voters would support Barack Obama’s candidacy if their first choice candidate were no longer running in the primary. There is room for other candidates to break through to the California Democratic primary electorate between now and February 5, 2008; the race is very much still up-for-grabs.

Clinton Is Best Known, But Obama And Edwards Are More Popular Among Voters Who Know Them
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Clinton’s dominance in the horserace may be partly due to her significant advantage in name recognition: 96% of California’s Democratic primary voters know Clinton, whereas nearly 20 points fewer (77%) have clear impressions of Obama and Edwards, and fewer still exhibit familiarity with the other candidates. Three quarters (75%) of California Democratic primary voters view Clinton favorably—10 percentage points higher than the favorables for Edwards (65%) and Obama (64%). Gore is as well known (96% ID) and well liked (75% favorable) as Clinton among Democratic primary voters, suggesting that his entrance into the primary could significantly alter the dynamic of the race.