PPIC Poll Shows Barack Obama Much Stronger in California Against McCain Than Clinton

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Primary Results Not Predictive About Electability in the Fall in the Biggest State

By Frank D. Russo

A poll released late last night by the highly respected and non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) taken of a large sample of Californians and likely voters shows Barack Obama besting John McCain in California by a 49% to 40% margin, while a race between Hillary Clinton and McCain is won more closely by Clinton 46% to 43%.

The extensive PPIC Survey, 33 pages in length, which plumbs the depths of Californians’ opinion and attitudes towards a number of state and national issues, also shows that Obama has a much higher favorable rating than McCain and Clinton and that he does significantly better amongst “independent” or “decline to state” voters. He also picks up the state’s large Latino votes in a November election by a margin of 70% to 20% over McCain.

The findings in this poll show, that for the largest state in the nation with 55 Electoral College Votes (20% of those needed to be elected President), Obama is much better positioned to win in November—and why. It calls into question one of the central arguments of a Clinton candidacy—that she can win the big states in the fall—and that there is a correlation between Democratic primary results and performance in November.

Although Clinton won the February 5 primary election in California 51.5% to 43.2%, an 8.3% margin, Obama wins the November election by narrowly winning the independent vote in California narrowly while Clinton loses that key segment of the vote 44% to 36%. Independent voters comprise about 20% of the electorate in California.

Barack Obama has the highest favorable to unfavorable rating--61% to 34%. McCain has a 49% to 45% favorable rating. Clinton’s unfavorable rating—52% is higher than her favorable rating—45%. Amongst independent voters, Obama has a higher favorability rating (57%) than McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%).

The PPIC survey has a margin of error of 3% with likely voters and asked questions of 2002 California residents, 1077 of which were identified as likely voters. It was conducted between March 11 and March 18.

Only 7% of California voters say they are undecided in this survey in either November matchup. Republicans and Democrats vote strongly along partisan lines—a bit more so with Clinton as the candidate. That is not entirely bad for the Democratic candidate since Democrats have a substantial voter registration edge in California. PPIC also shows Democrats are clearly the party California voters think will do a better job on the economy, Iraq, immigration, and health care. The War in Iraq remains unpopular with California voters as well as President George Bush who gets a 72% disapproval rating and only 24% support.

Here are the details for November.