Recent California Registration Trends: Good News for Democrats, Bad News for G.O.P. in Districts Drawn by the Legislature

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Commentators have made much of the decline in major party registration shown in the Secretary of State’s latest, “Report of Registration”. Given the relationship between two-party registration and “competitive” elections, a quick glance into those areas of the state that are not clearly “blue” or “red” might prove instructive – at least on a short term basis.

The Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley districts have been trending steadily Republican. AD 2, a stretch of rural counties running North of Sacramento to the Oregon border had a 6 point edge for Republicans at the beginning of the decade (39 Dem. to 45% Rep.). Currently it is a 15 point GOP edge (32 Dem to 47% Rep). Because the Republicans are an “ideological” party, it’s adherents are far less likely to defect than are Democratic registrants. Because Republicans are demographically homogeneous and ‘better off’ on the education/economics scale, they turnout are higher rates than do the Democrats. As a generalization, then, a district becomes “competitive” at about 35% Republican and safely republican at about 40% Republican.

There are exceptions. I elected an Assemblyman in a 44% Republican seat in 1992. It was a good year for Democrats and we caught a flawed Republican napping. (Two years later it was a bad year for Democrats and we lost by 10,000 votes). In 2004 the current Insurance Commissioner broke all spending records trying to win a seat with 30% Republican registration. He lost, but came close.

Typically, however, both party cohorts tend to put their resources into seats where the GOP has registration of 35% or more while Democratic candidates in seats with 40%+ Republican registration seek vainly for financial assistance.

In the Assembly, that generally means AD 17, AD 30, AD 31, in the Central Valley and, AD 76, AD 78 and AD 80, the first two in San Diego and the latter in Riverside/Imperial. In the Senate that means SD 34 in Orange County which, at 41-37.5% Democratic, is the model for registration in a competitive seat. Two other
Senate seats are competitive: SD 12 and SD 15. Both these seats are currently held by Republicans with the most competitive SD 12 now the target of a recall campaign in which the Democrats are involved.

Four of the Assembly seats are held by Democrats and two by Republicans. All have been ground zero in campaign battles throughout the decade.