Reexamining the $9 Billion Gambling Claim

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Call it a half-truth, call it an estimated guess, but just don't call it a certainty. Which $9 Billion? Well, the promised $9 Billion from the gaming compacts, of course.

In our endorsements, we expressed skepticism that all this money will arrive soon, or at all.  Today, the LA Times takes a look at those figures. There is a $3 Billion floor that the three tribes must provide the state within the 22 years of the life of the contract, and a minimum guarantee of $123 million/year. But that is the only guarantee. There is no guarantee of when the casinos get built out, when they begin to give the state any of that money, of how much money we get next year, or the year after (other than the $123mil). So, the connection to the $14.5 Billion?  Minimal. But that doesn't mean the tribes won't trumpet the connection:

"Whether it's $100 million or $500 million," said Roger Salazar, spokesman for the tribes' campaign, "it's all money that can help stave off at least a few of the potential [state budget] cuts that are being considered."

$100 million. It's a lot of money, but the statement presupposes that we can't get more money from the tribes. There are arguments to oppose building additional casinos, in general. They are extensive, and I've put them forward myself on occasion. You know, they are regressive taxes, a drain on society, yada yada. But, putting that aside, and the argument about labor rights, and dealing with the reality of the casinos, it's just not clear that there is enough on the table here for the state.

Now, in a comment to the endorsements, Major Danby argues that perhaps we should have tested this with one smaller expansion and then gone ahead if that was successful, and vote yes on one of the compacts and no on the rest. But this is 15,000 slot machines, without state control of where and when they go in. Is the thought of $100-$500m of manna from the heavens enough for us? It might arrive in spades, it might trickle down. But let's be honest, California needn't just settle for these compacts.