Republican Move to Change California's Electoral College Votes for President Has "Early Support"--But Less Than 50%-- According

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

California's real election for President may be in June next year

By Frank D. Russo

The ballot initiative to change California's allocation of electoral votes from winner take all statewide to winner take all by Congressional District, being circulated by a group of Republicans and designed to be on the June ballot has support from 47% of registered voters in California and opposition from 35%, according to a Field Poll released today.

There are several large grains of salt to take with these results from Field, but this should be a wake up call to all who want an even playing field in the November 4, 2008 Presidential election that our work is cut out for us. I interpret the results as indicating that a decent campaign--and getting voters to the polls in the June primary--should result in this measure's defeat. But a deeper analysis is in order and the main points are as follows:

• As in any poll, the questions asked are significant.

• The Field Poll was taken about the time that significant press accounts of the initiative were beginning to appear.

• Measures that in early polling do not have support levels above 50% and usually significantly higher usually are defeated, especially if there is an organized campaign to present strong arguments against a proposition to the voters.

• The Field numbers are for registered voters and not for likely voters.

First of all, the Field Poll is highly respected and this is a scientifically valid survey of 536 registered voters with a 4.5% margin of errort taken between Agust 3 and 12. As such it is a statistically significant snapshot of that sample with the information and questions asked.

The initial question asked is: